Donald Trump shooting: 5 reasons why assassination attempt may or may not impact 2024 race

5 reasons why assassination attempt on Donald Trump may or may not influence presidential race

The failed assassination attempt on former president Donald Trump has turned the United States of America into the focus of the world. The shocking turn of events at the Republican presumptive nominee’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13 shifted the political narrative ahead of the crucial presidential election in November. Trump narrowly escaped the bullet fired by 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, only sustaining an injury to his ear. However, evaluating how it would politically impact the former president is essential. It can either be a boon or have no ripple effect on his White House dream. In light of this, here are five reasons why an assassination attempt may or may not impact the 2024 presidential elections.

1. Activating MAGA base

Since the election year kicked off, Trump’s attempts to mobilize the base have not succeeded compared to his previous White House runs. In the first quarter of the year, he trailed President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign, especially in fundraising. However, the New York hush money conviction in May did boost his MAGA base, who sided with Trump’s narrative of the prosecution as politically motivated. Therefore, the assassination attempt would catalyze the support that could, in turn, result in the polls. For instance, the real estate mogul has begun to milk the situation by sending out a fundraising appeal post-assassination attempt. According to Politico, the fundraising email consists of Trump raising his fist in the air after the shooting along with the statement, “I am Donald J. Trump, and I will NEVER SURRENDER.”

2. Potential sympathy or tough image for Trump

The probability of people supporting Trump due to sympathy after surviving a gunshot that could have been fatal could be positively reflected in the 78-year-old’s third presidential bid. For example, President Ronald Reagan’s approval increased from 60 percent to 68 percent after he was shot and seriously injured in 1981. The real estate mogul’s pictures that came out of the Pennsylvania rally after the shooting could have created a similar effect. A viral image by Evan Vucci of the Associated Press portrayed Trump standing against the clear blue sky swarmed by four Secret Service agents and one apparently looking directly into the camera despite covering his eyes with a sunglass. An American flag was behind Trump, whose face had traces of blood oozing from his injured ear. According to The New Yorker’s Benjamin Wallace-Wells, the photo  is “an emblem of this tumultuous age, when the long pattern of political violence in America has intensified.”

3. Boost support among low-trust voters

One way Trump can take advantage of the situation is through conspiracy theories regarding the attempted assassination of him. This would make him acceptable among low-trust voters. According to Vox news correspondent Eric Levitz, “voters with low levels of trust in society and the political system are shifting rightward.” Therefore, twisting the conspiracy theories that accuse the Democrats, the media, and shadowy powers of wanting to have the bullet fired at Trump could favor the GOP. Republicans, including the former president’s son, Donald Trump Jr, have held Biden and Democrats responsible for the incident. Such arguments could resonate among low-trust voters who want to side with the MAGA spearhead.

4. Election is four months away

The most evident drawback to using the attempted assassination to help him win is the large gap between now and Election Day on November 5. Anything could shift between now and then. For instance, around 48 hours ago, the plummeting potential of Biden’s Democratic nomination was the only headline. Therefore, neither Trump nor any of his allies can ensure that they continue to milk the sympathy until November 5 for a second White House term.

5. A political narrative around the shooter may not benefit Donald Trump

Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old man from Pennsylvania who fired the shots, unfortunately, does not fit any of the political narratives of Trump and the GOP. He is a registered Republican who once donated to a left-leaning political action committee. Moreover, the motive behind the attempted assassination remains unclear as the gunman was fatally shot by a Secret Service sniper on the spot. Arguments blaming Democrats or hidden power brokers for his actions may not seem convincing to many general voters, according to Vox’s senior politics correspondent Andrew Prokop.