How a failed second impeachment set Trump on his tumultuous journey to 2024 presidential election
Unpacking Donald Trump's post-impeachment path to the 2024 presidential elections: 6 key insights
In a political landscape fraught with tension and excitement, former President Donald Trump's recent victories in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary have positioned him as the frontrunner, with a clear path ahead. With a commanding 51 percent and 54 percent of the votes, respectively, his dominance is palpable, leaving his last contender, Nikki Haley, facing an uphill battle in South Carolina and the upcoming Super Tuesday states. The failed attempt to disqualify Trump under the 14th Amendment's anti-insurrection provisions underscores the resilience of his candidacy. Reflecting on the events of February 13, 2021, when the Senate fell short by 10 votes in his second impeachment trial, it becomes evident that this moment was perhaps the closest Trump ever came to being denied the 2024 GOP nomination.
Senate acquits Trump in his historic second impeachment trial in Feb 2021
In a historic moment, the Senate acquitted former President Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial on February 13, 2021. Despite 57 senators voting guilty, 43 voted not guilty, falling short of the 67 votes needed for conviction. Seven Republican senators joined Democrats in finding Trump guilty, marking a bipartisan rebuke. The trial, held exactly one month after the House impeached Trump, showcased a significant departure from the first trial when only one Republican senator, Mitt Romney of Utah, found Trump guilty.
10 votes short of conviction
In the evenly split Senate, House impeachment managers, all Democrats, aimed to sway 17 Republican senators to convict Trump. Despite seven Republicans voting to convict, the effort fell short by 10 votes of the required two-thirds majority. In total, fifty-seven senators voted to convict the former president. Among those voting to convict were Republican Senators Richard Burr, Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney, Ben Sasse, and Pat Toomey.
Fate of Republicans who voted against Trump
Since casting their impeachment votes, Representatives Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio and Adam Kinzinger of Illinois have announced their retirements amid death threats and hostility from colleagues. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, once a star in House Republican leadership, now finds herself exiled within the party. Others, like Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington, Peter Meijer and Fred Upton of Michigan, either conceded or lost to Trump-endorsed primary challengers in 2023. Meanwhile, John Katko of New York has retired, Tom Rice of South Carolina lost his seat last year, and David Valadao of California and Dan Newhouse of Washington have prevailed. In the Senate, Mitt Romney, previously the sole GOP member to vote against Trump, was joined by six others: Richard Burr, Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Ben Sasse, and Pat Toomey. Some, like Cassidy, faced official rebukes from their state party, while others received criticism from local conservatives. Cassidy, for instance, was swiftly censured by the Louisiana GOP. Burr and Toomey retired from the Senate at the end of 2022.
Trump’s approval rating rises after impeachment
In February 2020, former President Donald Trump enjoyed his highest approval rating at 47%, following his acquittal in the first impeachment trial, as per NBC News polling. Notably, amidst impeachment proceedings, Trump's approval among Republicans surged to around 90%, up from the mid-80s in 2019. Similarly, among independents, Trump's approval rose to 47% in January 2020 and 51% in February 2020, up from the 30s previously. These numbers underscored Trump's strengthening grip on his base and appeal among independents during the impeachment. While past trends don't guarantee future outcomes, the numbers are something to think about if House Republicans pursue impeachment against President Joe Biden.
America views Trump favorably despite criminal indictments
Throughout this year, Trump has faced a barrage of legal challenges, with four indictments landing on his doorstep. On March 30, Manhattan prosecutors hit him with "hush money" charges, followed by allegations of mishandling classified documents on June 8. Then, on August 1, Washington, DC, prosecutors tackled election interference charges, before Georgia authorities added racketeering and election interference charges on August 24. Despite this legal storm, Trump's political fortunes have seen an upward trajectory. Since his first charge, FiveThirtyEight noted a nearly 12 percentage-point surge in his average GOP primary standing, currently standing at 58.7 percent. Similarly, Real Clear Politics observed a comparable rise, with average support reaching 57.4 percent at the time of publication.
Trump wins Nevada, New Hampshire, and US Virgin Island primaries
Trump secured victories in the Republican presidential nominating caucuses in Nevada and the US Virgin Islands, solidifying his position as the frontrunner in his party's race. As the sole major candidate in Nevada's caucuses, Trump was projected to claim all 26 delegates to the party's nominating convention in July, according to Edison Research. His consecutive wins in Iowa and New Hampshire last month brought him closer to clinching the Republican nomination for the upcoming general election, where he is expected to face incumbent President Joe Biden in a rematch in November. Despite Trump's dominance, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley remains steadfast in her bid for the nomination, a decision that has irked Trump. Haley is determined to press on, eyeing a potential last stand in her home state of South Carolina, which holds its primary election on February 24.
