Trump holds razor-thin lead over Harris, reveals new election poll ahead of debate

WASHINGTON, DC: Former president Donald Trump has taken a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris nationally, according to the results of a poll released on Sunday, September 8. The development was met with dissatisfaction by social media online. 

A poll by The New York Times/Siena College, conducted from September 3 to September 6, surveyed 1,695 registered voters, and the results showed Trump leading Harris by a narrow margin of 48 percent to 47 percent nationally.

The polls' results come barely days before Trump and Harris are scheduled to take the stage for a debate on Tuesday, September 10. This is their only scheduled debate, eight weeks away from the polls in November. 

Poll shows Kamala Harris in tight race with Donald Trump

Furthermore, the poll indicated that the two candidates are in a statistical tie in the seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The first significant poll released after Harris accepted her party's nomination and began her official campaign showed a decline in her standing. Previously, a Times/Siena poll had Harris leading with a margin of 49-46.

Siena poll findings

The poll found Donald Trump’s favorability rating similar to the July results, with 27% rating the former president very favorable, 19% somewhat favorable, 10% somewhat unfavorable, and 42% very unfavorable.

Harris's favorability ratings also remained similar, with 24% finding the vice president very favorable, 21% somewhat favorable, 13% somewhat unfavorable, and 37% very unfavorable, reports the Boston Herald.

 

The interest in Harris has heightened ahead of the debate, with 31% expressing interest in learning more about her and 67% saying they knew all they needed to. Twelve percent of voters expressed they needed to know about Trump.

Around 63% of voters wanted to know more about Harris’ policies/plans and 48% about Trump’s policies/plans. Ten percent wanted to know everything or more information generally about Harris.

Voters also described Trump as the “change candidate”, with 53% saying he represents major change over Harris’s 25%.

When it comes to the major issues in play for the presidential election, 21% of those polled listed the economy as the top issue as over half of the voters polled said the country’s current economic conditions are poor.

Abortion ranked as the next in line with 14% of the vote, followed by immigration with 12%.

Asked which candidates would do better on the issues, 56% said Trump on the economy, 55% said Harris on abortion and 53% said Trump on immigration.

Since Harris is the sitting vice president, voters polled connected Harris to ongoing issues, with 37% saying she carried “a lot of blame” for problems at the border and 25% saying she carried some blame.

Similarly, over 50% said she carried at least some blame for rising prices.

There was also this question on the importance of the elections and of those polled, 65% said this election is the most important election of their lifetime.

When compared to the Times/Siena poll taken in September 2020, 74% of voters called the election the most important of their lifetime.

Has Kamala Harris' momentum 'stalled'?

Nate Cohn of The Times raised questions about whether Kamala Harris's momentum had "stalled" following what he termed a "euphoric August," during which her fresh candidacy diverted all attention from Donald Trump.

If one were to consider how things stood in July, then there was the assassination attempt on Trump and the former POTUS was still comfortably leading in many places even before his former rival Biden stepped down from the presidential race. 

Cohn assessed Sunday’s survey could be an outlier, and a former aide to Harris, Mike Nellis, dismissed the implications of the result, saying the election right now is “a coin flip.”

However, this has not alleviated the worries of some individuals who believe Harris is facing difficulties, especially considering the rocketing enthusiasm following the announcement of her candidacy and the Democratic National Convention.

Cohn informed readers on Sunday, September 8 that “There’s no way to know whether the Times/Siena poll is too favorable for Mr Trump. We never know whether the polls are “right” until the votes are counted."

"But the poll nonetheless finds that he has significant advantages in this election — and they might just be enough to put him over the top."

Internet reacts to poll discrepancies and debate impact on Kamala Harris's campaign

After the news surfaced on social media, there were many in disbelief about the results and while the competition is tight, Kamala Harris supporters in general were hesitant to accept the picture the polls relayed. 

A user wrote, "Gut-check for a journalist aspiring to intellectual honesty: From inside the arena the DNC seemed fuckin awesome, hit the right themes, people were pumped, the big speeches were all good. And yet Harris has lost ground—not much, but some—ever since. Why?"

Another user tried to quell the panic, claiming the poll isn't accurate, "Sisters/brothers, another data moment: don't sweat the new NY Times poll. it isn't accurate. first the average of the 7 or 8 credible polls in last few weeks show Harris with 3 point lead. 2nd, the NY Times poll is 4 or 5 points more GOP than every other credible poll."

"There have been 12 non-partisan polls published with interviews done since Aug 28th other than the new NYT poll. In these 12 polls Harris has a 3 pt lead on average, and none show the shift towards Trump the NYT finds. The NYT tells us we should ignore all those polls," One said.

A person remarked, "POLLS ARE BULLS**T! You know what matters? VOTING All these fake polls people are sharing DO NOT match the internal polling. People share these type of polls for ratings & to try & appear legitimate Why do you think that orange scab is screaming into the void about people cheating in an election that hasn't even started yet? Those internal polls are telling him he's losing He knows he's losing He knows he's gonna to lose to a Black Woman And it's fucking GLORIOUS! Now, STFU & All Gas, No Brakes until election day"

Others chimed in, "Distressing—depressing—alarming. After everything—after January 6th, after clear evidence a second term would be far more authoritarian than the first, after the ever-increasing radicalization of MAGA world—Trump now has more support than he had in 2016 or 2020."

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