Tight races ahead: 9 battlegrounds that could determine who will control the House in November

Exploring 9 primaries that could set the stage for House majority

With more states holding primaries ahead of November, the battleground for the House majority is beginning to take form. While California just concluded its primaries on March 5, which will undoubtedly be crucial to both parties' hopes of winning the lower house, New York, another crucial battleground, will conduct its House primaries in June. Numerous elections in these states are destined for hard, close finishes since Republicans have a razor-thin majority in the lower house. Here are 9 competitive races that could decide who will win the House majority.

1. California’s 13th Congressional District

Republican Representative John Duarte and Democrat Adam Gray are headed for a rematch in California's 13th District. This year's primary saw Duarte finish around 9 points ahead of the field; nonetheless, he narrowly prevailed in the midterm elections, marking the first time in decades that a Republican had taken the district. In addition, it was the nation's second-closest congressional contest of that year. Democrats are counting on Gray to win this year.

2. California’s 22nd Congressional District

After a tight midterm election, Democratic candidate Rudy Salas and Republican candidate Rep. David Valadao proceeded to the general election in California's 22nd Congressional District. This set up a rematch. There were concerns that Melissa Hurtado, a fellow Democrat, may steal Salas's votes on Super Tuesday, advancing two Republicans to the main election. In the end, Hurtado received 15% of the primary vote in the contest for the 22nd Congressional District; nevertheless, according to the most recent tallies from Decision Desk HQ, Salas prevailed with 28% to Valadao's 34%. Valadao defeated Salas by barely three points in the elections.

3. California’s 47th Congressional District

Representative Katie Porter, a Democrat from Orange County, announced her failed candidacy for the state's unusually vacant Senate seat. Following Porter and fellow progressive Representative Barbara Lee's elimination from the top two in Super Tuesday's Senate race, Republican Steve Garvey and Democrat Adam Schiff advanced for a political confrontation. Porter's seat in California's 47th Congressional District will become vacant when she steps down from Congress in the upcoming year. The Republican Scott Baugh will face Democratic state senator Dave Min in an attempt by the GOP to clinch the seat held by the progressive politician.

4. New York’s 4th Congressional District

Rep. Anthony D'Esposito (R-NY) is a competitor in one of the nation's most volatile toss-up elections this year. The state's new congressional map, which Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) signed into law last month, mostly left his district's political mix intact, but he still faces a significant obstacle to overcome. Even though Biden carried the district by almost 15, D'Esposito managed to defeat Democrat Laura Gillen by a margin of more than three points. Compared to previous President Trump's performance in the same district two years prior, it was among the best Republican performances nationally in 2022.

5. New York’s 17th Congressional District

In 2022, Rep Mike Lawler (R-NY) pulled off a significant upset victory by defeating Rep Sean Patrick Maloney, who was heading the House Democrats' campaign arm, by a margin of just more than 0.5 percentage points. Lawler led the effort to remove George Santos for the false statements he made about himself and the criminal charges he faced. Lawler has worked to establish himself as a centrist within the GOP conference. Republicans gained the majority in the House by a narrow margin thanks in large part to this symbolic victory. He is most likely to run against former New York representative Mondaire Jones (D), who served in the district before the maps were redrawn and lost a primary in a different district.

6. New York’s 22nd Congressional District

Rep Brandon Williams (R-NY) may have the biggest uphill struggle of any possibly vulnerable New York House Republican in November. In a district that Biden won by seven points, he narrowly prevailed in his House seat race, but the revised map has made it harder for him to win reelection. Biden would have carried the district by eleven points under the current boundaries, and Williams did not see the same kind of split-ticket voting that proved crucial for Anthony D'Esposito in his district in 2022.

7. Michigan’s 7th Congressional District

Rep Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) has opened up her place in the House by deciding to run for Senator Debbie Stabenow's (D) seat, who is retiring. Democratic state senator Curtis Hertel has received support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), while Republican Tom Barrett, who lost to Slotkin by about 5 points in 2022, is vying for the seat again. According to reports from The Detroit News, the midterm election was the most costly House fight in the nation. As both parties aim for the opening, the 2024 race is expected to be a fierce contest.

8. Ohio’s 9th Congressional District

For most of her career, Rep Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) has had a dependable Democratic-leaning constituency while serving as the representative for her state's 9th Congressional District for 40 years. However, her district became a battleground when Ohio redrew its boundaries in 2020. With 56% of the vote, she easily won reelection in 2022 against Republican JR Majewski, whose race was marred by controversy over statements he made about his military career. This time, Kaptur is expected to run against a less baggage-laden opponent, which may make it her most challenging campaign so far.

9. Oregon’s 5th Congressional District

Democrats are attempting to reclaim a seat on the West Coast that went to the Republicans for the first time in many years when Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer won Oregon's 5th Congressional District in the midterm elections. In the previous campaign, Chavez-DeRemer defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner by a margin of two points, making history as the first Republican woman to represent Oregon in Congress. In an attempt to set up a potential rematch before Oregon's May primary, McLeod-Skinner is running once more; however, the House campaign arm of the Democratic Party has endorsed Oregon state representative Janelle Bynum.