'Blue wave or a red wave': JD Vance makes 2026 midterm prediction

WASHINGTON, DC: Vice President JD Vance said Alaska's Senate race will remain competitive whether Republicans or Democrats ride a “red wave” or “blue wave” in November 2026 midterms. 

Republican Sen Dan Sullivan faces Democrat Mary Peltola in a contest Vance said has historically stayed competitive across different political climates. 

Vance made the remarks on Monday, October 5, while speaking with reporters before flying to Alaska to campaign for Sullivan, a Republican incumbent. 

JD Vance says Alaska race stays competitive in any political year

“If you look historically, actually, Alaska-it's one of the reasons why I love it,” Vance said, arguing that the state's Senate races remain competitive in both strong Republican and Democratic years.

“In very deep red years, Alaska is competitive. In very deep blue years, Alaska is still competitive,” Vance said. “Whether this was going to be a blue wave or a red wave year, you're going to have a competitive Senate race in Alaska.”

“So I think it's just a reality of the politics of the state,” he added.

Sullivan advanced to the November general election alongside Peltola after Alaska's nonpartisan primary, with the top four candidates moving forward.

Peltola led the primary with 48% of the vote after 80% was counted, while Sullivan had 42.8%, according to The Guardian.

The race is among the contests that could affect control of the Senate during the final two years of President Donald Trump's presidency.

VP Vance attacks Mary Peltola over her voting record

Vance also criticized Peltola over her record, accusing her of supporting policies he described as part of the “woke era” that voters no longer support.

“I would just say to Alaska voters, don't judge Mary by what she's saying in the final six weeks of a Senate campaign,” Vance said. “You got to judge her by what she actually did.”

Vance specifically cited Peltola's past support for what he called “radical Democrat policies, including men and women's sports.”

Peltola has sought to distinguish herself from Sullivan through advocacy for Alaska's fisheries and opposition to Trump's economic policies, while both candidates support the state's oil and gas industry.

Ranked-choice voting and namesake rival complicate race

Sullivan, first elected in 2014, easily won reelection in 2020 but now faces Peltola, who is seeking to return to statewide office after losing her 2024 reelection bid to Republican Nick Begich III.

Vance said Alaska's political system also makes the race distinctive, pointing to the state's ranked-choice voting system.

“They obviously have the kind of weird ranked choice voting system that I don't fully understand,” Vance said.

Sullivan also faces another candidate with the same name, retired schoolteacher and former Forest Service employee Dan J Sullivan, who is running as a long-shot Republican.

Alaska Republicans have called the namesake candidate a “sham” backed by Democrats to confuse voters, while efforts to disqualify him from the race were unsuccessful.

Vance is campaigning for Sullivan during a trip to Alaska with his wife, Usha, and their children.

He said the trip marks Usha's 50th state and joked about traveling with their nine-week-old baby.

“I think we'll have fun,” Vance said before departing.