Democrats press Congress advantage as Trump approval sinks to a new second-term low

WASHINGTON, DC: Democrats hold a narrow but consistent advantage in the battle for control of Congress, according to a new NBC News poll, as President Donald Trump's declining approval ratings continue to create challenges for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

The survey found that 49 percent of registered voters prefer Democrats to control Congress after this year's elections, compared to 44 percent who favor Republican control. Another 7 percent remain undecided.

The Democratic advantage is largely unchanged from March, when the party held a 6-point lead on the generic congressional ballot.

Independents break toward Democrats

Independent voters are giving Democrats a significant boost, favoring Democratic control of Congress by a 46 percent to 34 percent margin.

The party also enjoys support from majorities of Black and Latino voters, voters under the age of 50 and those with college degrees. Republicans continue to perform better among men, white voters and voters without a college education.

“These are rocky numbers for Republicans, but they are not catastrophic,” Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies said.

McInturff noted that Democrats held larger leads during previous wave-election cycles, particularly in 2018.

Trump's approval rating hits new low

The poll comes as Trump's approval rating among registered voters has fallen to 42 percent, the lowest level recorded during his second term in NBC News surveys.

Among all adults, the president's approval rating stands at 39 percent. Trump faces particular difficulties with independent voters, two-thirds of whom disapprove of his job performance.

The survey also shows growing dissatisfaction among key groups that helped Trump in the 2024 election. Among Latino voters, 64 percent disapprove of the president, while 34 percent approve.

Young voters aged 18 to 29 are even more negative, with 77 percent disapproving and just 21 percent approving.

While Republicans remain largely supportive of Trump, cracks appear to be emerging within the GOP base.

Republican approval of Trump's performance dropped from 88 percent in March to 82 percent in the latest survey.

House within reach, Senate more difficult

Democrats need to gain only three seats to recapture the House of Representatives, though redistricting has made the electoral map more competitive.

The Senate presents a steeper challenge. Democrats would need to gain four seats to secure a majority, requiring victories in several states that Trump carried comfortably in 2024.

Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt argued that the party remains well-positioned despite those challenges.

“Does this need to be 2018? No,” Horwitt said, referring to the election in which Democrats gained 40 House seats. He added that Democrats are “still in a really good position, despite redistricting, to win seats.”

Voters growing more pessimistic

Beyond electoral politics, the poll reveals deep public pessimism about the country's future. A majority of registered voters, 56 percent, believe America's best years are behind it, while only 40 percent believe the nation's best days are still ahead.

Nearly 80 percent of respondents also said achieving the American Dream is harder today than it was a generation ago.

Confidence in public institutions remains weak. Half of voters said they have little or no confidence in the federal government, while 58 percent expressed little or no confidence in Congress.