Mitch McConnell's 80-day absence takes a bizarre turn as bettors reverse course
WASHINGTON, DC: Sen Mitch McConnell's absence has entered a new phase: prediction-market traders are betting that the 84-year-old Kentucky Republican will remain in the Senate through November’s midterms.
The odds of McConnell resigning before Election Day have fallen to about 7%, according to prediction market Coinbase, after previously climbing to nearly 49%.
Questions remain over when he will return to Washington.
The betting odds have collapsed
A contract asking whether McConnell will resign before November 3 was trading at roughly 7% on Wednesday, September 2, while the opposite outcome stood near 93%.
Earlier this year, the resignation probability rose sharply during periods of uncertainty surrounding his health, reaching 48.8% in February, according to the Daily Beast.
The latest pricing represents a reversal despite his continued absence.
Mitch McConnell's absence began after the June hospitalization
McConnell was hospitalized on June 14 after a fall that left him briefly unconscious.
He later disclosed that he was also treated for mild pneumonia and said doctors had ruled out a heart attack, stroke, fractures, and other serious conditions.
His office said he was undergoing rehabilitation and physical therapy.
He was discharged from the rehabilitation center on August 6 and said he would continue intensive physical therapy at home while staying engaged with staff.
Updates have remained unusually limited
Since the hospitalization, McConnell has made no public appearance and his office has provided only limited updates.
A July 12 photograph showed him with his wife, Elaine Chao, while a second image was released later that month.
The senator also missed Kentucky’s annual Fancy Farm political picnic, a decades-old tradition for him.
He was absent again from the Kentucky Farm Bureau Country Ham Breakfast on August 27, an event he routinely attended.
Kentucky voters await his return
McConnell has announced that he will not seek another Senate term and plans to leave office when his current term ends in January.
His prolonged absence has nevertheless created uncertainty over his ability to finish those remaining months in office.
Some Kentucky Republicans have said they expect him back when the Senate reconvenes on September 14, although those expectations have been based on conversations with his staff and GOP leadership, rather than seeing McConnell publicly.
Kentucky Republicans are relying on staff
Several lawmakers told local media they expect McConnell back later this month based largely on discussions with his staff and Senate Republican leadership.
That leaves a notable gap between the assurances coming from his political network and the limited information available directly from McConnell.
Meanwhile, his aides have continued representing him at Kentucky events.
His state director, Robbin Taylor, attended the opening of a Louisville housing development last month after McConnell could not appear personally.
The senator also sent a written statement praising the project and its organizers.
That means McConnell’s political operation remains active even while the senator himself stays out of public view.
