Trump would have defeated Kamala Harris by five points with full voter turnout, bombshell report reveals
WASHINGTON, DC: For years, Democrats have clung to a simple, comforting belief: if they could crank up voter turnout and energize their base, they could win the presidency. But that strategy crashed and burned in the 2024 election.
According to a deep-dive analysis of voter data, boosting turnout might have actually hurt the Democrats. If every registered voter had actually cast a ballot, Donald Trump wouldn’t have just squeaked by with a 1.7-point popular vote lead—he would have steamrolled Kamala Harris by five points.
That’s the bombshell takeaway from Eric Levitz’s reporting for Vox.
Appalling data that Democrats can't ignore
Eric Levitz’s analysis didn’t just come from any old number cruncher. He tapped into the insights of David Shor, a man he calls “the most influential data scientist in the Democratic Party.” And Shor didn’t sugarcoat a thing.
Shor’s firm, Blue Rose Research, conducted a staggering 26 million voter interviews last year. And their analysis of Harris’ loss should send shockwaves through the Democratic Party.
Shor told Levitz, "The reality is that these things always tend to move in the same direction—parties that lose ground with swing voters tend to simultaneously see worse turnout. And for a simple reason. There were a lot of Democratic voters who were angry at their party last year. And they were mostly moderate and conservative Democrats angry about the cost of living and other issues."
"And even though they couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a Republican, a lot of them stayed home. But basically, their complaints were very similar to those of Biden voters who flipped to Trump," he continued.
Considering, the Democrats lost because even their own voters were fed up. Sure, a lot of them couldn’t stomach voting for Trump, but instead of voting blue, they just stayed home. And the ones who did flip to Trump, their reasons weren’t all that different.
Shor hammered the point home: "The reality is if all registered voters had turned out, then Donald Trump would’ve won the popular vote by 5 points [instead of 1.7 points]. So, I think that a ‘we need to turn up the temperature and mobilize everyone’ strategy would’ve made things worse."
A historic defeat for Democrats
Donald Trump’s final vote tally wasn’t just a win—it was a record-breaker. With 77.3 million votes to Kamala Harris’ 75 million, he pulled off something no Republican had done in 20 years: winning the popular vote.
The last time a Democratic candidate lost the popular vote was in 2004 when John Kerry got trounced by George W Bush.
So, what drove voters to hand Trump this historic comeback? According to exit polls, it all came down to frustration—frustration with inflation, frustration with the border crisis, and frustration with America’s perceived weakness on the world stage.
In the end, voters decided that the best way to shake things up was to send Harris packing and bring back a familiar face—Trump.
Trump’s political resurrection is the stuff of legend. Two impeachments, criminal convictions, coupled with a “strongman” style that defies every norm of political discourse. None of it stopped him.
What's more? Trump survived two assassination attempts during the campaign. For some of his die-hard supporters, that was proof that “God was involved".
But this wasn’t just about voting against the status quo. Plenty of Americans actually like Trump’s brash, unapologetic style. They want his policies on border security. They want his tough talk on crime. And they definitely want someone who promises to tackle their biggest concern—the skyrocketing cost of living.
Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, summed it up best. “2016 was not an aberration. Trump’s victory [in 2016, along] with what happened last night, makes a case that much of what he sells, from a political perspective, is what Americans want," he declared.
