A Trump ally is slipping in North Carolina, and even $100M may not be enough

WASHINGTON, DC: Republicans are growing increasingly concerned about North Carolina's Senate race as President Donald Trump's longtime ally Michael Whatley continues to trail Democrat Roy Cooper in public polling, despite millions of dollars already committed to the contest.

Whatley, Trump's former handpicked Republican National Committee chair, is running to succeed retiring GOP Sen Thom Tillis. 

But an Elon University poll released Thursday showed former North Carolina Gov Cooper leading Whatley by 11 points among likely voters.

The race has prompted growing concern within Republican circles, with some questioning how much money should be directed toward a contest that was once expected to remain comfortably in GOP hands.

Trump is now preparing to campaign alongside Whatley in North Carolina.

GOP fears race is slipping

Republican concerns surfaced during private conversations and meetings at the party's recent midterm convention in Dallas.

Sen Rick Scott described North Carolina as "probably one of the hardest" states on the Senate map, noting that Whatley is running against a former governor.

One GOP pollster told POLITICO that North Carolina and Georgia were increasingly being viewed as difficult investments compared with potential pickup opportunities elsewhere.

Trump also acknowledged the challenge during his convention speech, calling North Carolina "a little more difficult" while maintaining his support for Whatley.

Millions may not change race

Outside Republican groups have already committed significant money to North Carolina.

The Senate Leadership Fund has pledged an initial $71 million through Election Day, while a Trump-linked political action committee recently added roughly $5 million.

More spending could push the total well beyond $100 million, particularly because North Carolina has some of the country's most expensive media markets.

But some Republican operatives remain unconvinced that money alone can change the race.

One North Carolina-based GOP operative told POLITICO that Whatley would need a campaign capable of turning additional spending into gains in the polls.

Whatley has said he is confident his campaign will have the resources needed to reach voters.

Trump heads in to help

The White House has announced that Trump will travel to Gastonia, North Carolina, for a campaign rally with Whatley next week. 

The visit will put the president directly into one of the GOP's most closely watched Senate contests.

Republicans are counting on Trump to help motivate lower-propensity voters who strongly support him but may be less likely to vote when he is not on the ballot.

A person close to the Whatley campaign said Republican voters in North Carolina often make their decisions later in the election cycle and argued that Trump's appearance could boost turnout.

What North Carolina voters face

The race comes as voters continue to focus on the cost of living and the economy, issues Republicans are trying to address before November.

Democrats have not won a North Carolina Senate race since 2008, and Republicans note that the state's polling has shifted significantly in previous elections.

The NRSC has also argued that early Democratic leads have proven unreliable in past North Carolina contests.