Why Trump keeps returning to Texas: Inside the Senate race drawing more than $100M in outside spending

Trump's San Antonio appearance follows recent visits to Houston and Denton, making Texas an unusually frequent destination during his final midterm campaign push. Trump traveled to Houston in late August for a fundraiser benefiting Paxton before returning to Texas for an October 1 rally in Denton. His October 7 San Antonio appearance makes it three Texas campaign trips in roughly six weeks. The repeated visits come as Republicans devote substantial resources to both the Senate contest and competitive House races across the state.

The contest took a dramatic turn in May when Paxton defeated longtime Sen John Cornyn in the Republican runoff, ending Cornyn's more than three decades in elected office. National Republicans had spent much of the primary warning that nominating Paxton could require significantly more resources in the general election. Those concerns have now translated into an enormous financial commitment from Republican-aligned groups. Paxton, Texas' attorney general since 2015, is facing Talarico, a Democratic state representative and former public-school teacher.

At the beginning of September, Talarico was dominating Texas' political airwaves after raising and spending tens of millions of dollars. Between April and June alone, the Democrat raised approximately $30 million, while his campaign's early advertising advantage left Republicans debating how much national money should be committed to Texas. Talarico had spent about $61 million on general-election advertising by the end of September, according to AdImpact figures reported by the Texas Tribune. Paxton, who had been substantially outraised, began a $20 million statewide advertising campaign as Republican outside groups dramatically increased their own spending.

This is where the scale becomes striking. Federal filings showed outside groups from both parties had spent more than $205 million on the Texas general election by the beginning of October — with more than 98% supporting Paxton, either through pro-Paxton messaging or attacks on Talarico. The biggest spender has been Texas PAC, which is connected to Senate Majority Leader John Thune and had spent approximately $131 million. Trump's MAGA Inc. had added nearly $24 million. When candidate and outside-group advertising are combined, the Texas Senate race had generated about $259 million in general-election ad spending through September — already surpassing the roughly $202 million spent on the state's 2024 Ted Cruz-Colin Allred Senate contest.

There's another wrinkle behind those enormous numbers: outside groups pay substantially more for television advertising than candidates themselves, who are legally entitled to discounted rates close to Election Day. AP highlighted one striking example: Texas PAC paid approximately $450,000 for an Austin-market ad during a football game, while Talarico's campaign bought comparable airtime for around $50,000. The spending has even put pro-Paxton commercials on nationally televised NFL games. One featured Angela Paxton, Ken Paxton's estranged wife, who filed for divorce in 2025 citing adultery. Without mentioning him by name, she made a party-first appeal: “Either we hold every Republican seat, or we hand the future of Texas to the other team,”she says in the ad. The spot aired during the Cowboys-Texans game. Texas' sprawling media landscape helps explain the strategy, with campaigns forced to buy airtime across multiple expensive markets rather than a single statewide television market.