Historian who has accurately predicted elections since 1984 reveals likely winner in Trump-Harris showdown
WASHINGTON, DC: The 'Keys to the White House', a prediction system created by Allan Lichtman, is currently suggesting a favorable outcome for Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former president Donald Trump.
However, a final prediction for the 2024 race has yet to be made.
Alan Lichtman's predictive formula: The thirteen keys
Allan Lichtman, an esteemed election forecaster, has accurately predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984. Lichtman's predictive model, known as the 'Keys to the White House', consists of 13 true or false questions. These questions serve as indicators to determine the likely victor in the upcoming presidential election.
Lichtman's model evaluates each candidate against 13 criteria. If a statement is true for a candidate, they are awarded a "key." If false, their competitor receives the key. The candidate who secures six or more keys is predicted to win the election. The 13 keys are:
1. Party mandate
2. Contest
3. Incumbency
4. Third party
5. Short-term economy
6. Long-term economy
7. Policy change
8. Social unrest
9. Scandal
10. Foreign/military failure
11. Foreign/military success
12. Incumbent charisma
13. Challenger charisma
Current status of the keys
As it stands, Democrats, with Kamala Harris as the likely nominee, hold six of the 13 keys. These keys include primary contest, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma.
Conversely, Republicans hold three keys: winning the House majority in the 2022 midterms, the current incumbent not seeking re-election, and the current incumbent lacking charisma.
There are four keys yet to be assigned: the third-party factor, social unrest, foreign military failure, and foreign military success. The third-party key is particularly notable due to Independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr's presence in the race.
Lichtman emphasizes that if Democrats lose three more keys, they would be projected to lose the election according to his model. Despite this, Lichtman told News Nation that "a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose."
Lichtman has a strong track record, having correctly predicted Trump's victory in 2016 and Biden's win in 2020. He plans to make his final prediction for the 2024 election after the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in August when the Democratic nominee will be officially selected.
Current political climate
Recent events have influenced the electoral landscape. Donald Trump's edge over President Joe Biden grew following Biden's poor debate performance last month, which led to increased calls from within his party for him to drop out of the race.
However, since Biden ended his re-election bid and Kamala Harris quickly consolidated party support, polls indicate a competitive race once again.
Polls conducted in key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin show a tight race between Trump and Harris. Furthermore, in traditionally Democratic states such as Minnesota and New Hampshire, where Trump was previously competitive with Biden, recent surveys now indicate a slight lead for Harris.
Veteran GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio, who polls for the Trump campaign, referred to the current phase as the "Harris Honeymoon." He stated in a campaign memo, "We will start to see public polling – particularly national public polls – where Harris is gaining on or even leading President Trump."
"The Democrats and the MSM [mainstream media] will try and tout these polls as proof that the race has changed. But the fundamentals of the race stay the same. The Democrats deposing one Nominee for another does NOT change voters' discontent over the economy, inflation, crime, the open border, housing costs not to mention concern over two foreign wars," he argued.
Fabrizio predicted that Harris' initial boost in support will diminish as voters refocus on her tenure as Biden's vice president and her "dangerously liberal record." He added, "While the public polls may change in the short run and she may consolidate a bit more of the Democrat base, Harris can’t change who she is or what she’s done," Fox News reported.
