Mamdani-backed candidate gains ground in LA mayor race as markets predict blowout

LOS ANGELES, CA: The race for Los Angeles mayor has been upended by a bombshell ballot drop that has pushed progressive City Councilmember Nithya Raman into a near-deadlock with reality television star Spencer Pratt for the second runoff slot.

Backed strongly by the party's rising democratic socialist wing, including New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Raman’s sudden surge has transformed the municipal contest into a high-stakes battleground over the ideological future of urban governance.

With roughly 78% of total ballots counted as of Sunday morning, incumbent Mayor Karen Bass remains comfortably positioned in first place with 34.8% of the vote.

However, the high-stakes battle to advance to the November general election has tightened down to the wire. 

Pratt currently holds 27.3% of the vote, while Raman has climbed rapidly to 26.2%, leaving the two candidates separated by a razor-thin margin of just 7,494 votes, according to the Associated Press.

Prediction market probabilities collapse overnight

The narrowing margins have triggered an unprecedented shift across major political prediction platforms.

While Pratt maintained a steady second-place lead for several days following Tuesday’s primary, digital betting markets have completely inverted their outlooks based on historical mail-in ballot trajectories.

On Polymarket, algorithm projections now give Raman a 99% chance of advancing to the general election runoff, while Pratt’s odds have plummeted to a mere 1%.

A matching pattern emerged on Kalshi, where Raman’s numbers surged to 97%, obliterating Pratt’s position.

The drop marks a stunning reversal from election night, when the former reality TV star held an insulated 75% probability of advancing out of the nonpartisan jungle primary.

Leftward mail-in trends provoke conservative fury

The abrupt shift has sparked immense fury from conservative commentators and Trump administration officials, who continue to target the Golden State’s prolonged tabulation procedures.

The backlash lands precisely as federal prosecutors in Los Angeles advance multiple active investigations into regional election fraud allegations.

Local election officials stressed that nearly 200,000 ballots still remain uncounted, the vast majority of which consist of mail-in envelopes that historically favor progressive candidates.

With another massive batch of verified ballots scheduled to drop on Sunday evening, the mathematical reality has heavily penalized early conservative leads.

Bettors reap massive financial windfalls

The dramatic volatility has transformed the financial landscape of political wagering. Strategic bettors who placed speculative $100 wagers on Raman early in the week, when her calculated probability of advancing sat at a low 20% margin, stand to collect hundreds of dollars in payouts if the councilmember officially secures the second runoff spot.

As counting continues under heightened security, the municipal deadlock remains a key indicator of the friction between progressive organizers and right-wing populist challengers.