Marco Rubio gains ground on Vance in 2028 poll as Democrats struggle to find front-runner
WASHINGTON, DC: Secretary of State Marco Rubio is emerging as one of the biggest challengers to Vice President JD Vance in the early race to inherit President Donald Trump’s political movement, according to a new 2028 presidential poll that suggests Republican voters are becoming increasingly divided over who should lead the party after Trump.
The numbers matter because they offer one of the clearest early signs yet that the Republican Party may no longer be consolidating entirely behind one obvious successor to Trump.
Rubio’s rise reflects growing divide inside GOP
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is nearly even with Vice President JD Vance in a 2028 presidential race poll released Thursday, which also pegs former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg as the front-runner for the Democratic nomination.
Support for Rubio has climbed 15 percentage points since February, placing the top US diplomat within 1 point of Vance, the Emerson College survey showed.
Vance garnered 36 per cent support among likely Republican primary voters, down from the 52 per cent he received in August 2025 and February polls, while Rubio collected 35 per cent support, up from the 9 per cent and 20 per cent he received in the pollster’s two previous surveys.
Florida Gov Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley were tied for third with 5 per cent.
Instead, GOP voters appear increasingly split between two different political styles emerging inside the MAGA movement.
Vance still embodies Trump’s more combative populism and culture-war-driven message that inspired younger conservative voters.
Rubio, meanwhile, seems to be gaining ground among older Republicans and establishment-leaning conservatives who still support Trump fiercely, but perhaps want a more traditional governing figure going forward.
“The Republican primary has shifted significantly since February, when 52 per cent supported Vance and 20 per cent Rubio; the potential 2028 contenders now compete evenly,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.
“Rubio has found support among Republican Primary voters over 50, who support him by a six-point margin over Vance, 41 per cent to 35 per cent, while Vance leads the younger Republican vote under 50, 37 per cent to 26 per cent,” Kimball explained.
Trump fuels speculation about 2028 rivals
President Trump himself has added to speculation about the rivalry by repeatedly mentioning both Rubio and Vance during speeches and public appearances.
The results come as President Trump has recently began polling the crowd during speeches on whether they prefer Vance or Rubio to take over the MAGA mantle in 2028.
Trump has referred to a potential Vance-Rubio ticket as a “dream team.”
While Trump has not endorsed any future successor, his public praise for both men has intensified conversations inside Republican circles about who is best positioned to carry the MAGA movement into the post-Trump era.
Democrats still searching for clear front-runner
On the Democratic side, the poll showed former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg overtaking California Gov. Gavin Newsom as the party’s leading 2028 contender.
Since February 2026, Buttigieg picked up a couple of points, he’s now at 18 per cent, up from 16 per cent.
Newsom, on the other hand, took a real hit. He dropped from 25 per cent last August down to 16 per cent.
Rep Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) landed in third, with 11 per cent of likely Democratic primary voters behind her.
Pennsylvania Gov Josh Shapiro and former Vice President Kamala Harris ended up tied for fourth place, each with 10 per cent.
Shapiro has actually gained some ground, up five points since August 2025. Harris slipped a bit, down one point since then.
Nearly one in five Democratic voters surveyed said they remain undecided, signaling that the party still lacks a dominant national figure capable of fully uniting progressives, moderates, and younger voters.
