'Nostradamus' Allan Lichtman predicts RFK Jr dropping out of 2024 race could benefit Kamala Harris

WASHINGTON, DC: Historian and political analyst Allan Lichtman, often referred to as the "Nostradamus" of US elections, recently shared his thoughts on the potential impact of Robert F Kennedy Jr's exit from the 2024 presidential race.

According to Lichtman, Kennedy's departure could benefit Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign, particularly if he endorses former president Donald Trump, according to Newsweek. 

Allan Lichtman suggests RFK Jr dropping out could benefit Kamala Harris 

During a YouTube livestream on his channel, Allan Lichtman was asked if RFK Jr dropping out and backing Trump would aid Harris, according to his election prediction system. Lichtman responded, "Absolutely correct."

He elaborated that Kennedy's endorsement of Trump would not directly influence the "keys" in his model, which is designed to predict election outcomes. "His endorsement of Trump has nothing to do with the keys – [it] doesn't turn a key one way or the other," Lichtman clarified.

While Lichtman has not definitively called the "third party" key in his system, he acknowledged that Kennedy does not seem likely to rebound in the race. "I'm still reserving judgment," he added.

Lichtman rose to prominence with his prediction model called "The Keys to the White House", which has accurately forecasted the outcomes of the last ten US presidential elections.

The model, based on 13 true/false statements, assesses the incumbent party's chances of winning the election.

These 13 keys, which Lichtman detailed in a 2012 article for Social Education, include factors like party mandate, economic conditions, and social unrest.

In Lichtman's model, if six or more of these keys are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose. If five or fewer are false, the party is expected to win.

Although the professor has yet to make a formal prediction for the 2024 election, he told Newsweek that he plans to do so shortly after Labor Day.

Lichtman's analysis suggests that Kennedy's exit would reinforce the Democratic Party's chances of reelection, particularly by strengthening key four – the absence of a significant third party. However, not all political analysts share this view.

While Lichtman believes that Kennedy's departure would be advantageous for the Democrats, other pundits argue that it could boost Trump's campaign instead.

Nate Silver, founder of the news site FiveThirtyEight, has had disagreements with Lichtman in the past and recently suggested that Kennedy's withdrawal poses "a little bit of a downside risk" for Harris.

According to Silver, Kennedy has been siphoning off more votes from Trump than from Harris, so his exit could potentially weaken the Democratic candidate's position.

Allan Lichtman's opinion on RFK Jr's potential departure sparks debate online

The news of Allan Lichtman's opinion on RFK Jr's potential departure from the 2024 presidential race has recieved mixed reactions from social media users.

On Facebook, one person remarked, "RFK is not a factor…Stay or Go…a week from now no one will know!" Another said, "Glad he is dropping out. these jokers were pulling potential democratic votes."

"Just a couple of weeks ago he was begging Harris for a cabinet position in exchange for an endorsement," wrote one person. Another added, "This guy needs a job ! Go away."

"Duh. He is splitting the unhinged crazy conspiracy demographic with Trump," wrote one individual.

On X, one person wrote, "Sounds like they’re grasping at straws here!" Another pointed out, "That poll is incorrect."

One netizen stated, "WRONG It could help Trump tremendously if he handles it just right...."

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