Republicans pour over $7M a day into Ken Paxton's Texas Senate bid as stakes rise: Report
WASHINGTON, DC: A Republican super PAC poured around $131 million into independent expenditures over just 17 days to boost Ken Paxton’s Texas Senate campaign.
That’s about $7.7 million a day, based on Federal Election Commission records reviewed by Newsweek. With the November 3 midterm election looming, Paxton is lagging behind Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico in many recent polls, though some results are still close enough to fall within the margin of error.
Who's behind the spending
The spending intervention is being led by Texas PAC, a Republican group affiliated with the Senate Leadership Fund, the principal GOP super PAC involved in Senate elections.
Because Texas PAC is legally independent of Paxton’s campaign, the money is not available for him to spend directly.
Instead, it pays for independent activity such as television, streaming, and digital advertising.
FEC records show that Texas PAC, which is registered with the FEC under committee number C00960211, filed several reports between September 13 and September 30 detailing independent spending related to the election.
Senate Leadership Fund executive director Alex Latcham said, "The Republican Party is united to elect Ken Paxton and keep Texas red in November. Senate Leadership Fund’s investment through Texas PAC affirms our commitment to maintaining the Republican majority and defeating Far-Left liberals like James Talarico."
A historically red state turns competitive
Talarico, a former Presbyterian seminarian and middle school teacher, is seeking to become the first Democrat in decades to win a Texas Senate seat.
A victory would give his party a significant gain in its attempt to take control of the Senate.
Texas hasn't picked a Democratic US senator since 1988, and it's been just as long since a Democrat won any statewide office, 1994.
So, when Republicans pour big money into the state, it stands out. Most people see Texas as safely red.
In the May primary runoff, Paxton defeated sitting Senator John Cornyn to secure the GOP nomination. That upset split the Republican establishment and gave Democrats a real shot at the seat.
The latest campaign finance numbers, through June 30, show a wide gap: Talarico hauled in $31.85 million, while Paxton raised $9.15 million. For Talarico, 55% of those donations came from inside Texas. For Paxton, that figure was about 82.9%.
The scale of spending expected in the 2026 Texas contest can be seen by comparing it with the previous election cycle.
In 2024, candidates in the Texas Senate race raised nearly $200 million, more than in any other Senate contest, according to an analysis of FEC data for the 2023-2024 election cycle.
Republican groups plan to pour over $300 million into the Texas race, covering both the primary and the general election, CNN reports. That figure draws from several organizations, different campaign phases, and even advertising bought in advance for later.
Republican organizations already set aside $166 million for ads supporting Paxton from September through Election Day. On the other side, Democratic groups plan to spend about $32 million.
Polymarket traders currently price Talarico at a 63% probability of winning and Paxton at 38%, with more than $1.6 million traded on the market.
