Paxton closes in on Talarico as new poll shows GOP within striking distance in Texas Senate race
WASHINGTON, DC: Democratic senatorial nominee in Texas James Talarico has a slight 3% lead over his Republican opponent Ken Paxton in the latest opinion poll, according to Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc, just under two months before Texans head to the polls on Election Day.
The poll, which surveyed 625 registered voters in Texas, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%, meaning the candidates are essentially in a tie based on the poll's margin of error.
Democrats hope to win the race and gain a seat in the Senate in a state that has long been considered Republican-leaning.
Texas Senate race tightens as Ken Paxton gains ground
The close gap comes as Paxton, the state's current attorney general, has seen Talarico gain momentum in recent polls as he has emerged as a leading candidate in recent polling.
Democrats have a narrow path to reclaim control of the upper chamber, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, and winning a longtime GOP seat from a state that backed President Donald Trump by more than 13 points in 2024 would be a significant gain.
Democrats also must defend their current seats, including in two states Trump won in 2024, and flip four others.
Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party historically loses seats.
Millions of dollars have already been spent on the Texas race, and both campaigns are ramping up outreach as they battle for undecided and independent voters in the final weeks of the campaign.
Texas Senate race tests Democrats’ 2026 strategy
Texas hasn't had a Democratic senator since 1988 and hasn't voted for a presidential candidate from the party since 1980, but Democrats believe 2026 presents one of their best chances in decades to win a statewide election.
Trump carried Texas by 13.7 percentage points in 2024, beating former Vice President Kamala Harris 56 percent to about 42.5 percent.
The state hasn't elected a single Democratic statewide official since 1994, making it one of the nation's most Republican-leaning states.
Democrats have tried to turn it into a toss-up as demographics have shifted and voters have grown more diverse, but they've been thwarted in recent races, including Beto O'Rourke's unsuccessful campaign against Cruz in 2018.
Bernadette Breslin, national press secretary at the National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC), told Newsweek, "Summer polling has flattered Democrats in reliably red states before, only to be proven wrong in November."
She continued, "James Talarico enabled Joe Biden's border policies, and voters won't forget the price hikes and fentanyl deaths that followed."
