Republicans narrow Democrats' lead ahead of 2026 midterms, new poll shows

WASHINGTON, DC: Republicans have narrowed the gap with Democrats heading into the 2026 midterms, according to a new Washington Post-Ipsos poll, though Democrats still hold the overall lead among registered voters.

The survey showed Democrats ahead 48% to 45%, down from a five-point edge in the same poll back in May, meaning the GOP has cut into what had been a more comfortable Democratic advantage.

An enthusiasm gap cuts both ways

Among voters who are "absolutely certain to vote," Democrats have a 53% to 45% lead.

However, Republicans have gained ground by closing a nine-point Democratic advantage from two months ago.

Reporters Scott Clement and Gregory S. Schneider noted that Republican voters appeared less motivated to vote in November than Democratic voters.

They noted that if Trump can address key voter concerns before Election Day, such as lowering gas prices or ending the war with Iran, his party's efforts to redraw congressional maps in red states could help maintain the GOP's majority in the House.

“Republican supporters just aren’t as energized to turn up at the polls, the Post-Ipsos poll suggests. If Trump is able to mitigate some top concerns by Election Day, for example, by bringing down the price of gasoline or ending the war with Iran, then his push to draw new congressional districts in red states could be enough to retain the GOP majority in the House.”

Democrats' hopes of flipping the House rely heavily on a more energized base.

This trend is evident in the new poll and in the party's strong performances in recent primaries and special elections.

Compared to the lead-up to the 2018 midterms, when Democrats gained 40 House seats in a wave election, the current numbers show a mixed picture.

In 2018, Democrats had a 10-point lead in Post-ABC congressional support polling, while now they have only a three-point edge. However, the enthusiasm gap between the parties is larger now than it was back then. This difference could be more important than the overall numbers themselves come November.

Democratic unease over primary wins for the left

The poll also comes amid growing anxiety among some Democrats after democratic socialist candidates notched wins in several recent primaries.

Bill Maher warned that Democrats risk "blowing" the midterms if the party embraces what he called "crazy" socialists, while Democratic strategist James Carville urged congressional Democrats to keep their distance from any socialist candidates who make it to Congress.

The Washington Post-Ipsos poll was conducted July 8-13 among 2,648 respondents, offering one of the more comprehensive early looks at the political landscape as both parties gear up for the November midterms.