Trump's approval rating tops Obama's and Bush's at same point in second term, polling average shows

WASHINGTON, DC: President Donald Trump’s national approval rating is higher than those of former Presidents Barack Obama and George W Bush at the same point in their second terms, according to a RealClearPolitics polling average.

The comparison has rekindled interest among Trump supporters as the administration enters the 2026 midterm campaign season. Trump's numbers have been ahead of Obama's since November 2025, though they had trailed Bush's numbers for a period before crossing over.

Trump holds the strongest in-party approval of any 21st-century president at this stage

Beyond the overall approval comparison, Trump holds stronger in-party support at this point in his term than other recent presidents did at the same stage, doing far better than Obama or Bush among his own party's voters, potentially hinting at enduring base strength heading into the midterms.

The data has been widely shared by Trump allies and conservative commentators as evidence that the president's standing with the public remains resilient despite ongoing political opposition and intense media coverage.

It was reported that the RealClearPolitics average puts Trump at roughly 41%, compared with where Obama (40.9%) and Bush (38.5%) stood at the same point. 

Trump's sustained in-party approval has been one of the defining features of his second term, with Republican base enthusiasm remaining a central pillar of the administration's political strategy.

Analysts also noted that Trump's endorsements remain "gold" in GOP primaries, and his approval ratings will be a significant factor influencing the 2026 midterms. 

Historical context on second-term approval ratings

Second-term presidents often experience slumping approval.

In the first year of his second term, Obama had only 41.3% approval, a figure that had fallen in October following a government shutdown battle in 2013.

Bush was even further behind at the same stage.

Since 2002, every midterm election has seen the party in the White House lose the House of Representatives, a historic precedent that even the highest approval ratings, like Bush’s 89.8% after 9/11, can’t seem to overcome.

The RealClearPolitics comparison uses approval ratings at the same points in time across presidencies, providing a steady baseline that removes the different political settings each president navigated and isolates only where public support was at a specific time.

The data point has been embraced by Trump allies as a counter-narrative to coverage that has focused on other polling showing lower overall figures. The White House has not issued a formal statement on the RealClearPolitics comparison, but Trump has previously cited favorable polling data on Truth Social and in interviews as evidence of what he describes as strong and sustained public support for his agenda.