Talarico leads Paxton in Texas poll conducted with Trump's go-to pollster

WASHINGTON, DC: Democrat James Talarico carries a four-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the latest AARP poll of the Texas Senate race. The survey was conducted, in part, by President Trump's longtime pollster, Tony Fabrizio.

The poll, released Thursday, showed Talarico with 48 percent support against 44 percent for Paxton, the Texas attorney general. Fabrizio Ward, Fabrizio's firm, teamed with Democratic polling outfit Impact Research on the survey.

Talarico leads Paxton among independent voters

The poll comes as Republicans have descended on Dallas for the party's unprecedented midterm convention this week.

The convention is part of a plan to mobilize the GOP base ahead of the midterms to avert losses in key races, as polls show many Americans have soured on the Trump administration amid growing frustration with inflation, the economy, and the war in Iran.

Talarico's lead is fueled by his strong appeal to independent voters, who preferred him to Paxton by 22 points, 55 percent to 33 percent.

The results suggest Paxton has not fully captured the GOP electorate. He has 83 percent of the Republican vote, compared to Talarico's 94 percent of Democrats. Talarico received 9 percent of Republican votes, compared to 2 percent of Democrats for Paxton.

In favorability ratings, Talarico had a net positive 7 points, with 42 percent favorable and 35 percent unfavorable. Paxton had a net negative 11, with 35 percent favorable and 46 percent unfavorable.

The poll surveyed 895 likely voters from Aug. 30 to Sept. 1, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

GOP concerns grow over Texas Senate race

Trump offered praise for Paxton during a press conference on Thursday.

"I'm not sure if I like your look. I'm not sure if I like the way you dress. I don't like the way you talk. But you're the greatest attorney general, so therefore, that's the only thing that matters," he said. "He's the best attorney general in the country."

Republican worries about the race have been growing. Trump-friendly Super PAC MAGA Inc. has revealed it has plans to spend $10 million in the contest, and Senator Ted Cruz called it a "five-alarm fire", saying "We could lose Texas... every Republican, every conservative, every non-nuts commonsense Texan needs to understand the crazies are coming out in force."

Paxton, who unseated longtime Senator John Cornyn in the GOP primary with Trump's help, has faced political challenges since he was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on charges of bribery and abuse-of-trust but later acquitted in the state Senate, calling it a "weaponization" of the political process.

With both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rating it a toss-up, the race could be one of the most closely watched Senate contests of the midterm cycle.