Trump campaign firefights after volunteer's email warns New Hampshire 'no longer a battleground state'

WASHINGTON, DC: Donald Trump campaign volunteer in Massachusetts "will no longer have any involvement" in the campaign after he warned in an email that New Hampshire was "no longer a battleground state," according to the Boston Globe on Monday.

In an email, which was obtained by the Globe, Tom Mountain, a Massachusetts volunteer for the Trump campaign, wrote to other Trump volunteers in the state that "the campaign has determined that New Hampshire is no longer a battleground state," and instead directed supporters to focus on Pennsylvania, another battleground state.

Tom Mountain predicts bigger loss for Trump in New Hampshire

Tom Mountain continued in his email by stating that Trump was "sure to lose by an even higher margin" in New Hampshire than in 2016 and 2020, citing "campaign data/research."

In 2020, Joe Biden won the state with 52 percent of the vote to Trump's 45 percent, while in 2016, Hillary Clinton was able to carry the state by around 2,700 votes.

In addition, Mountain claimed resources would be suspended and the campaign would not send Trump or high-profile figures central to the campaign to the state.

However, according to Newsweek, Trump's press secretary Karoline Leavitt denied Mountain's claims and reiterated the campaign's efforts in New Hampshire stating it "maintains an on-the-ground presence" in the state.

"This isn't true: President Trump's campaign maintains an on-the-ground presence in New Hampshire, including staff and offices, while Kamala Harris is parachuting in because she knows that the Granite State is in play. We look forward to building on the momentum that we have grown since the primary and sending New Hampshire's four electoral votes to President Trump's column on November 5," Leavitt said.

Trump campaign downplays Tom Mountain's influence

In addition, the Trump campaign clarified Mountain is a volunteer and does not hold a "formal role" in the campaign, adding that he is not privy to internal deliberations about campaign strategy or plans for other states.

"It appears this was just an independent attempt to generate enthusiasm for volunteer deployments to a nearby major swing state," the Trump campaign said in an emailed statement.

Mountain, who had served as one of several vice chairs for the former president's effort in Massachusetts, is also a former official with the Massachusetts GOP.

This comes as New Hampshire has voted Democratic in all but one election since 1992, but it is considered a battleground state in most election cycles because control of its state legislature and congressional seats have switched back and forth between Republicans and Democrats.

Meanwhile, battleground states, including New Hampshire, will play a key role in determining the result of this year's election due to the Electoral College, which awards each state a certain number of electoral votes based on population.

A presidential candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes for victory, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success. Surveys from battleground states may be more telling than those of national polls.

Harris leads Trump in New Hampshire polls following Biden's withdrawal

In July, in the first public survey of New Hampshire voters since President Biden dropped out of the presidential race, Harris had a lead of 6 points over the former president.

The poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire between July 23 and 25, shows Harris with a 49 to 43 percent lead over Trump. The poll surveyed 3,016 people and had a margin of error of 1.8 percent.

In a Saint Anselm College Survey Center (SASC) poll of 2,083 New Hampshire registered voters conducted between July 24 and 25, Harris had a 50-44 percent margin over Trump. The poll had a 2.1 percent margin of error.

However, Harris was not previously leading in the state. In a poll conducted by the New Hampshire Journal and Praecones Analytica after the Republican convention but before Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 campaign when Harris was matched up against Trump in a head-to-head, her Republican rival was leading her by one point, on 40 percent to her 39 percent.

This comes as the Democratic presidential ticket has seen a dramatic reversal in the polls since Biden's decision to drop out of the race and endorse Harris. She has surged in the polls - leading Trump in national and swing state polling averages whereas Biden was generally behind.

Kamala Harris leads in New Hampshire polling averages

According to FiveThirtyEight's polling average on Monday, the vice president is 7 points ahead of Trump in the state - 50.3 percent to his 43.2 percent.

Although Harris is leading in the polling averages, recent polls in Pennsylvania have also shown the pair tied, including the latest surveys conducted by Wick and Emerson College between August 25 and 29.

Meanwhile, other polls have shown Trump in the lead, including a Trafalgar Group poll from August 30, which put the former president 2 points ahead of Harris among likely voters.

A SoCal Strategies poll from August 23 put the former president 1 point ahead, while a Fabrizio Ward poll from August 21 also put the Republican 1 point ahead in a head-to-head matchup.