‘We could lose Texas’: Cruz warns GOP of Senate losses as Paxton faces tight race against Talarico

Ted Cruz dismissed claims that polls were inaccurate, warning that Democrats were significantly outpacing Republicans in voter turnout
Ted Cruz warned of risks for Republicans as Ken Paxton and James Talarico faced a tight Texas Senate race ahead of the November 3 election (AP Photos/Getty Images)
Ted Cruz warned of risks for Republicans as Ken Paxton and James Talarico faced a tight Texas Senate race ahead of the November 3 election (AP Photos/Getty Images)

WASHINGTON, DC: Republican Senator Ted Cruz warned on Friday, October 30, that Republicans could lose control of the Senate and suffer a sweeping defeat in Texas if conservative voters did not turn out in large numbers on Election Day.

His warning came as Republican nominee Ken Paxton faced a closely contested race against Democrat James Talarico.

Cruz said Democrats were significantly outpacing Republicans in early voting and cautioned that the GOP could lose as many as eight Senate seats nationally.

The Republican lawmaker made the remarks as Paxton made a final campaign push in a state that has not sent a Democrat to the US Senate since 1988.

Ted Cruz warns of GOP Senate losses amid turnout concerns

On the latest episode of 'The Verdict with Ted Cruz,' the Texas senator said that between eight and 10 Senate races across the country were effectively tied, leaving control of the chamber uncertain.

Cruz warned that the outcome could range from Republicans expanding their Senate majority to losing several seats, depending on voter turnout.

“If we have a good night on Election Day, we could have a fantastic result. We could end up with 53 Republicans in the Senate. We could end up growing our majority in the Senate,” Cruz said.

However, he cautioned that a poor result could leave Republicans with just 45 seats. “That big a delta is at play,” he said.

Cruz argued that Democratic voters were more energized and turning out in greater numbers, while Republican voters who typically supported the party were not voting early at the same rate.

“We could lose Texas ... If the election were over today, if just the early votes that have been cast so far were counted, Republicans would lose massively. It would not be close,” Cruz said.

“We would lose both the House and Senate. It would be a bloodbath.”

Republican nominee for Senate Mike Rogers, left, and Sen Ted Cruz, R-Texas, right, appear during a campaign event Wednesday, October 28, 2026, in Grosse Pointe Woods, Michigan (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Cruz also rejected arguments from some conservatives that polling and turnout figures could be dismissed as inaccurate.

“Now, some conservatives, they say, I don't trust the polls, the polls are all wrong,” Cruz said.

"Well, let me tell you, having run a lot of campaigns, these data are not fake. The Democrats are massively outturning out the Republicans. We got to fix that.”

Ken Paxton faces tough Texas Senate race against James Talarico

Cruz's warning about Texas came as Paxton and Talarico campaigned across the state in the final days before the November 3 election.

Republicans have held the Texas Senate seat for decades, with the state last electing a Democrat to the chamber in 1988.

However, recent polling and election forecasts suggest Paxton is facing a tougher contest than expected.

GOP Texas Senate Candidate Ken Paxton speaks to supporters at a watch party on March 3, 2026 in Dallas, Texas (Sergio Flores/Getty Images)

Talarico held a campaign event in Houston on Saturday, October 31, while Paxton, the state's attorney general, rallied supporters in Fort Worth.

Paxton urged voters to compare the candidates' records, saying, "Imagine what I would do as a senator," and adding, "I'm asking you to look at my record and compare that to James Talarico."

A poll from Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Center showed Talarico leading Paxton 49% to 47%, within the survey's margin of error.

Decision Desk HQ's latest forecast also gave Talarico a 59% chance of winning, compared with 41% for Paxton.

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