CNN's Harry Enten reveals Dems outvoting Republicans in Texas primaries has left him ‘mind blown’
WASHINGTON, DC: A surprising turnout trend in Texas has caught even seasoned political analysts off guard.
On Wednesday, February 25, Harry Enten, CNN’s chief data analyst, said he was left “mind blown” after reviewing new primary voting data from the traditionally Republican stronghold.
The numbers, released as early voting continues ahead of the March 3 Election Day, show registered Democrats casting ballots at a higher rate than Republicans - something that hasn’t happened in over two decades.
Mind blown about the early vote in Texas. TX Dems may outvote the GOP for the 1st time in a midterm primary since 2002!
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) February 25, 2026
This indicates they're well on their way to having higher primary turnout nationally & since 06 the party w/ higher primary turnout won the House every time. pic.twitter.com/QaBlWZOCi2
Harry Enten reacts to Texas primary shift
Breaking down the figures on air, Enten pointed to what he described as a stunning reversal from recent midterm cycles.
As of Wednesday morning, 53 percent of ballots submitted in Texas primaries came from registered Democrats, compared to 47 percent from Republicans.
“That hasn’t been close” since 2002, Enten noted, highlighting just how rare the development is in the Lone Star State.
The contrast with the 2022 midterms is particularly striking. At a similar stage that year, only 38 percent of ballots had been cast by Democrats.
“What a shift from where we were four years ago,” Enten said. “At this point, more people in Texas are picking up the Democratic ballot.”
He summed up his reaction in simple terms: “Again, as I said at the top, whoa!”
Why turnout numbers could matter beyond Texas
Texas has long been considered a Republican-leaning state, making the turnout disparity all the more significant.
Enten noted that in past midterm years - 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 - higher primary turnout often aligned with which party eventually captured control of the House. Currently, Republicans hold a slim majority.
“Still a close race, but given that Republicans have been so out-voting Democrats in Texas, the idea that more people could actually vote on the Democrat side in Texas?” Enten said, clearly struck by the numbers.
The shift also comes at a time when Democrats have overperformed in off-year and special elections since President Donald Trump returned to office in January 2025.
Such momentum, if sustained, could ripple far beyond Texas and shape the national political landscape heading into the general election.
High-profile races and controversies add to stakes
The turnout spike comes as Texans vote in several closely watched races, including contests for governor, a Senate seat and multiple high-profile House seats.
One of those House races involves Republican Rep Tony Gonzales, who has been embroiled in a sex scandal involving a former aide who died in September.
With early voting having begun on February 17 and Election Day set for Tuesday, March 3, national attention has increasingly turned toward the state.
