Fact Check: Did illegal immigration increase car insurance premiums as Trump claimed?

WASHINGTON, DC: President Donald Trump recently claimed that his immigration policies helped lower car insurance costs and that illegal immigration under the Biden administration contributed to higher premiums.

The claim gained attention because many Americans have seen their insurance rates rise in recent years. Is Trump's claim supported by the evidence? Let's fact-check it.

Claim: Trump said immigration policy affected car insurance premiums

Trump made the claim in a Truth Social post on Monday, June 15,  while sharing a chart that showed year-over-year changes in car insurance premiums between 2021 and 2026. 

The graphic indicated that premium growth increased sharply from 2021 to 2023 before slowing in 2024 and turning negative in 2026. The chart cited an analysis by the Council of Economic Advisers based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Using the graphic to support his argument, Trump linked changes in insurance costs to immigration policy. 

He wrote, “Car Insurance Premiums rose to RECORD HIGHS, forcing Law-abiding American Citizens to subsidize the ‘free riding’ Biden Illegals.” 

He added, “After over a year of ZERO ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION, and our highly successful efforts to REVERSE the Biden Invasion, Car Insurance Premiums have come tumbling down.”

Fact Check: False

The claim is false. Experts say the rise in car insurance premiums was mainly driven by factors related to the Covid-19 pandemic, including riskier driving behavior, more severe accidents, and supply chain disruptions that increased vehicle repair costs. As insurance companies recovered financially and competition increased, many insurers began lowering rates to attract customers.

Experts also say there is no evidence that illegal immigration played a significant role in either the increase or the decline in car insurance premiums. Michael Clemens, an economist at Johns Hopkins University and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, rejected Trump's argument.

He said, "The claim is pure fiction. It does not arise from any study by the White House, by the auto insurance industry, or even by anti-immigration pressure groups. It has no basis in anything but inflammatory statements that juxtapose two unrelated trends.”

When asked for evidence, White House spokesman Kush Desai defended the administration's position. He argued that the Trump administration's immigration enforcement and public safety policies helped reduce traffic risks by lowering congestion in some cities and removing commercial drivers who allegedly posed safety concerns. He said these changes contributed to lower risks for motorists and, in turn, lower insurance costs.

Experts, however, point to broader economic and industry factors. During the early months of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, people drove less as lockdowns, social distancing, and remote work became widespread. Fewer vehicles on the road led to fewer accidents and insurance claims, improving insurers' financial position.

As driving activity increased in the following years, accidents and repair costs rose, pushing premiums higher. By 2024, accident rates had started to decline, and insurance companies had strengthened their finances, allowing many insurers to reduce rates and compete more aggressively for customers.