Fact check: Is Trump right that the US leads China 'by a lot' in AI?

WASHINGTON, DC: President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed in early 2026 that the United States is leading its rival China "by a lot" in artificial intelligence (AI).

In January, the POTUS made the claim during an interview with CBS Evening News anchor Tony Dokoupil and doubled down during his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. But is there any truth to his statement? Let us find out below.

Claim: Trump says US leads China 'by a lot' in AI

During a January 13 CBS interview, Donald Trump told host Tony Dokoupil, "We're leading China by a tremendous amount."

Similarly, he said on January 16 in Mar-a-Lago, "The AI is unbelievable, what's happening there. We're leading China by a lot", and doubled it down during his January 21 speech at the World Economic Forum, saying, "We’re leading the world in AI by a lot. We’re leading China by a lot." 

Trump's claims frame US leadership as decisive and tied to factors such as private-sector innovation, deregulation, and policies enabling rapid scaling.

Fact Check: Partly true, gap is narrow and multifaceted

The claims made by President Donald Trump are partly true, as the US maintains a lead in core AI technologies, but it's not 'by a lot'. The gap between China and the US is narrow and multifaceted, with China potentially ahead in adoption and closing fast in others.

Moreover, PolitiFact also rated similar statements as "Half True" because of the omitted details on China's proximity and advantages. The US' lead is sustained by the quality and quantity of its AI chips, which are restricted for sale in China. 

Meanwhile, China has advantages in the quality of its workforce and electricity generation that powers data centers. The two countries are neck-and-neck, and recent changes in US export policy could be profitable for China. 

However, Donald Trump has also whittled down industry regulation, empowering US AI companies to expand with fewer restrictions. Experts informed PolitiFact that China is only months behind the US on AI. 

White House AI and crypto czar David Sacks revealed in June 2025 that Chinese AI models are "three to six months behind" the US.

Furthermore, Matt Sheehan, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Asia program, has estimated that after a US company releases the 'best new model,' a Chinese company would match it in just six to 18 months, per the outlet.

In summary, Donald Trump's claim is partially true as the gap is narrow and multifaceted, and China can catch up with the US in the coming months.