‘Melania’ heads for $8M opening as top documentary debut in a decade

WASHINGTON, DC: 'Melania', the documentary centered on the first lady, is shaping up to post the strongest opening for a documentary in a decade. Estimates point to better-than-expected $8 million or more in its opening frame.

The solid start follows a targeted campaign aimed squarely at older conservatives, capped by a Thursday night premiere in Washington, DC, that was attended by President Donald Trump and filled with loyalists. 

A surprise surge after gloomy forecasts

If the early estimates hold, 'Melania' will land at No 3 for the weekend, trailing only fellow newcomers 'Send Help' and 'Iron Lung'. In the process, it will edge out Jason Statham’s new action outing, 'Shelter'. It would be a result that few predicted heading into the weekend.

The showing comes as a surprise, given the widespread belief that Melania was headed for a soft opening. That narrative took hold after allegedly empty seat maps made the rounds online, suggesting minimal interest in theaters nationwide. Some even branded the film a bomb before it had a chance to play.

Instead, the documentary is proving to be a magnet in red-leaning parts of the country, particularly across the South and South-central regions. The audience skew is notable; Women over 55 accounted for 72 percent of opening-day ticket buyers, while a hefty 78 percent of all attendees were 55 and older.

The film is directed by controversial filmmaker Brett Ratner and comes with baggage that makes comparisons tricky. Amazon MGM Studios paid $40 million for worldwide licensing rights in a deal widely viewed as an olive branch to the White House.

The move also positions the doc as a future streaming play for Amazon Prime, where it could debut around President’s Day weekend even if it continues its theatrical run.

That said, the licensing deal alone makes Melania the most expensive documentary ever produced.

Big spending, bigger reactions

That price tag doesn’t include marketing. Amazon reportedly spent another $35 million on a global promotional push for the PG-rated film. By comparison, even top-tier documentaries usually see domestic marketing budgets capped between $5 million and $7 million.

There have been notable exceptions. Sources say the domestic marketing spend for Al Gore’s 'An Inconvenient Truth' and Michael Moore’s 'Fahrenheit 9/11' reached close to $15 million each due to awards considerations, not adjusted for inflation. 'An Inconvenient Truth' went on to win the Oscar for best documentary.

Nearly 20 years later, 'Fahrenheit 9/11' remains the highest-grossing documentary of all time across any genre, political or otherwise, and still holds the record for the biggest opening. The film debuted to $23.9 million from 868 theaters, finishing with $119.2 million in North America and $222 million globally, not adjusted for inflation.

'Melania' is also benefiting from an unusually loud megaphone in her husband. President Trump has actively encouraged supporters to see the film, while conservative grassroots campaigns are mobilizing audiences in red states and GOP-friendly markets, including Orange County, California. 

Movie critics, however, seem unimpressed. The documentary currently sits at a bruising 11 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes. Viewers tell a very different story, considering its verified audience rating stands at 99 percent, which is the highest of any film in the weekend’s top 10. CinemaScore polls show ticket buyers awarding the film an A at the time of writing.

Box office watchers note that Trump supporters often expect harsh reviews from what they view as left-leaning media, per The Hollywood Reporter.

From shaky tracking to a breakout debut

Heading into the weekend, nerves were high. 'Melania' was initially tracking toward a $5 million opening from 1,778 theaters, just enough to top the $5 million debut of Angel Studios’ 'After Death', which opened from 2,645 locations in 2023 and currently holds the title for the best documentary opening of the past decade.

Exhibitors weren’t sold. Sluggish advance sales and a steady stream of social media posts showing sparsely filled auditoriums led some theater owners to slash projections to between $2 million and $4 million.

Then came Friday.

After reviewing matinee and early evening grosses and checking in with exhibitors, nearly every major Hollywood studio revised its outlook. By Friday afternoon, consensus estimates pegged Melania between $8 million and $9 million.