'Trump can’t be too happy': CNN’s Harry Enten predicts sweeping Democratic wins in Nov 4 elections
NEW YORK CITY, NEW YORK: CNN’s Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten has predicted that Democrats could win big in three key races next week, a political forecast that he says is likely to leave Donald Trump less than happy.
Speaking with anchor Erica Hill on Friday, October 31, Enten said early polling trends suggest Democrats are leading in the New York City mayoral race and the gubernatorial contests in both New Jersey and Virginia.
“If [these races] are a test of Donald Trump, then Donald Trump can’t be too happy with what we’re seeing in the data right now,” the analyst said, calling the results a troubling sign for Republicans heading into 2026.
Harry Enten predicts Democrats have clear advantages in all three races
Harry Enten broke down the data from each race, explaining that Democrats appear to have consistent and measurable leads across the board.
“In New Jersey, I know a lot of Republicans want to think that [former State Representative] Jack Ciattarelli is closing the gap, but in all honesty, what we see there is that the Democratic candidate, [Rep] Mikie Sherrill, has a clear advantage of about six points. That’s the closest of the three races we’re talking about,” he said.
Moving south to Virginia, Enten said Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger was “way up there by double digits — up by 10 points” against Republican opponent and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears.
New York City mayoral race shows a decisive Democratic lead
Harry Enten went on to say that the New York City mayoral race may be the biggest blow to Republicans, with Democrat Zohran Mamdani leading by an overwhelming margin.
“In New York, Mamdani is ahead in the polls by 16 points over former Governor Andrew Cuomo and even further ahead of Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa,” the analyst noted. “At this point in time, it seems like the Democrats are most likely going to sweep all three of those races. That’s in part because of Donald Trump.”
Enten also highlighted how rare a full Democratic sweep would be. “The five times that I mentioned that the Democrats swept all of those races,” he said, “each and every time the following year, they won a majority in the US House of Representatives.”
Democratic sweep could signal a major momentum shift heading into 2026
According to Harry Enten, such results could be a sign of a broader shift away from Donald Trump’s influence. “If Democrats sweep on Tuesday, it, in my opinion, is a very good sign, looking forward to 2026 and taking that majority back from Republicans,” he explained.
Political analysts note that early polls can sometimes exaggerate trends, but Enten’s data-driven approach has often proven prescient.
Still, with voting set for Tuesday, both parties are bracing for what could be a bellwether night for national politics and a potential morale boost for Democrats after a turbulent year.
