8 things to know ahead of the South Carolina Republican presidential primary

Here's what you must know ahead of the Donald Trump-Nikki Haley showdown in the Palmetto state

All eyes are on South Carolina as Donald Trump and Nikki Haley gear up for a high-stakes clash in the state's pivotal Republican presidential primary on Saturday, February 24. This face-off marks the first direct confrontation between the last two major contenders since their encounter in New Hampshire a month ago. The stage is set on Haley's home turf, where she held the reins as governor for six years until 2017 when she took on the role of UN ambassador under President Trump. However, despite her deep roots, Haley faces a formidable challenge in a state where Trump commands robust support from the party establishment, boasting significant leads in recent polls and a strong backing from the conservative base. The South Carolina primary holds significant weight as a harbinger of the eventual Republican nominee. Since the inception of the modern primary format in 1980, nearly every GOP victor in South Carolina has gone on to clinch the party's nomination, except for Newt Gingrich in 2012. Here's what to expect come election night:

1. Primary day details

The upcoming primary is scheduled for Saturday, with polling stations set to close statewide at 7 pm EST.

2. Ballot composition

On the ballot, you'll find a lineup featuring Ryan Binkley, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, David Stuckenberg, and Donald Trump.

3. Voter eligibility and participation

In South Carolina, the primary system operates as an open one, allowing any registered voter to engage in any party's primary. However, participants are restricted to voting in only one party's presidential primary. For instance, those who participated in the Democratic primary on February 3 are ineligible to vote in the Republican contest. However, with only approximately 4% of registered voters having cast their ballots in the Democratic contest, a significant portion of the electorate remains untapped. This includes Democrats and independents who may lean towards Nikki Haley over Donald Trump but refrained from voting in the earlier primary. They are now eligible to influence the outcome of the Republican race.

4. How are delegates allocated?

In this primary, a total of 50 delegates are up for grabs. Of these, 29 will be distributed to the candidate who secures victory in the statewide vote. Additionally, 21 delegates will be apportioned based on the results in South Carolina's seven congressional districts. Within each district, the candidate with the highest number of votes will receive three delegates.

5. Predicting the outcome

In past South Carolina GOP primaries, Nikki Haley and Donald Trump emerged victorious in competitive races in 2010 and 2016, respectively. Insights from their previous performances suggest Haley's strength in traditionally Democratic counties and Trump's dominance elsewhere. Haley's 2010 runoff win saw her dominate in traditionally Democratic counties, while Trump carried 44 out of 46 counties in 2016. For Haley to fare well, she'd need significant support in Democratic-leaning areas, particularly in populous counties like Charleston and Richland, while also maintaining competitiveness in Greenville. Early voting could play a crucial role in determining the outcome.

6. Voter turnout and early voting trends

South Carolina boasts a robust electorate of 3.3 million registered voters, with turnout typically hovering around 25% in Republican primaries. This Saturday's primary marks the first since a new early voting law took effect in 2022, allowing voters to cast ballots in person before Election Day without an excuse. Early voting for the GOP primary ran from February 12 to February 22, excluding February 18-19. In the 2016 primary, only 8% voted early, but in the 2022 midterms, the number surged to 21%. The Tuesday night count reveals over 139,000 ballots already cast, setting the stage for an exciting showdown.

7. Vote counting timeline

In the 2024 South Carolina Democratic primary, the AP released the first results at 7.08 pm EST. The tabulation wrapped up around 10.47 pm EST, with almost all votes accounted for.

8. Countdown to the big day

As of Saturday, the countdown will start with 142 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee and 255 days until the November presidential election.