Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? Here's what latest polls say about her chances in Nov election
WASHINGTON, DC: It looks like President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from the presidential race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris has injected a much-needed wave of enthusiasm into the Democratic Party.
Within 24 hours of announcing her candidacy, Harris raised a record-breaking $81 million. By Monday night, she had secured enough delegate support at the Democratic National Convention to clinch the nomination.
Concerns about Kamala Harris' viability in general election
Despite this momentum, there are concerns about Harris's ability to compete against former President Donald Trump in a general election. According to FiveThirtyEight polling, conducted before Biden's exit, a slight majority of Americans hold a negative view of Harris. Specifically, 51% disapprove of her, while 38% approve. Trump fares slightly worse, with a 53% disapproval rating, but he has a marginally higher approval rating at 39%.
An analysis by the Washington Post of 11 different pollsters reveals that Harris lags behind Trump by an average margin of 1.5 percentage points. This is a minor improvement over Joe Biden, who trailed Trump by 1.9 percentage points. However, it's important to note that these polls were conducted before Biden's announcement to drop out, and such preemptive surveys are often inaccurate, Time reported.
ABC News, The Washington Post and Ipsos poll's results
From July 6 to July 9, ABC News, The Washington Post, and Ipsos conducted a poll involving 2,431 registered voters. This pollster is ranked second by FiveThirtyEight, just behind the New York Times/Siena College. The survey found that Kamala Harris outperformed Donald Trump by 2 percentage points. Joe Biden, in the same poll, was tied with Trump. However, the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points means the race between Harris and Trump is effectively even.
The Economist and YouGov poll results
The Economist and YouGov conducted a poll from July 13 to July 16, interviewing 1,404 registered voters. This poll showed Kamala Harris trailing Donald Trump by 5 percentage points, which is worse than Biden, who trailed Trump by 2 points. The margin of error for this poll was plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Reuters and Ipsos poll results
A Reuters and Ipsos poll conducted on July 16, surveying 1,202 US adults, found that Donald Trump narrowly edged out Kamala Harris by 1 percentage point. Trump also outperformed Joe Biden by 3 percentage points in the same poll. With a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, this means both races were effectively tied.
Yahoo! News and YouGov poll results
From June 28 to July 1, Yahoo! News and YouGov conducted a poll that found Donald Trump outperforming Kamala Harris by 2 percentage points, the same margin he had over Joe Biden. This poll was conducted after Biden's poor debate performance but before the assassination attempt on Trump. The survey, which included 1,754 American adults, also revealed that 38% of Democrat-leaning voters preferred Harris as Biden's replacement, while 42% thought another candidate would be better.
The New York Times and Siena College poll results
The New York Times/Siena College poll is regarded as the most accurate by FiveThirtyEight. Although they have not released a national survey on Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump, they conducted polls in the swing states of Pennsylvania and Virginia from July 9 to July 12. In Pennsylvania, Trump led Harris by 2 percentage points, within the margin of error of 3.7. In Virginia, Harris outperformed Trump by 5 percentage points, with a margin of error of 4.2.
CNN poll results
A recent CNN poll found Donald Trump holding 49% support among registered voters nationwide, compared to Kamala Harris' 46%. This is within the poll’s margin of sampling error.
The survey, conducted online on July 22 and 23, included registered voters who had participated in previous CNN surveys in April or June. These earlier surveys had found Trump leading Biden by 6 points.
