Fact Check: Did Trump say RCP8.5 climate scenario is now considered implausible?
WASHINGTON, DC: In a recent post on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump criticized the reliability of global warming projections, questioning widely cited climate forecasts. His remarks sparked attention for presenting a contentious interpretation of climate science and how international policy discussions are framed.
At the center of the debate are major scientific assessments regularly released by the United Nations, which synthesize global research on human-driven climate change and its future impacts. Here’s a closer look at the facts behind Trump’s claims and what the science actually shows.
Claim: The UN’s top climate committee admitted its own projections were wrong
According to the recent Trump's TruthSocial post, the POTUS wrote, “GOOD RIDDANCE! After 15 years of Dumocrats promising that ‘Climate change’ is going to destroy the Planet, the United Nations TOP Climate Committee just admitted that its own projections (RCP8.5) were WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!”
He added, “For far too long Climate Activism has been used by Dumocrats to scare Americans, push horrible Energy Polices, and fund BILLIONS into their bogus research programs.”
The POTUS continued, “Unlike the Dumocrats, who use Climate Alarmism nonsense to push their GREEN NEW SCAM, my Administration will always be based on TRUTH, SCIENCE, and FACT! President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
Scientists periodically update the scenarios used to project future climate conditions. A key factor shaping the extent and severity of future climate change is carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas.
In general, higher levels of carbon pollution lead to greater warming, which is why scientists develop projections based on a range of possible emissions pathways rather than a single forecast. These scenarios are not fixed predictions but tools designed to reflect different possible futures depending on how human emissions evolve.
Because of this, scientific assessments often become part of public and political debate, especially when they are interpreted or criticized outside their technical context. It is against this backdrop that recent political criticism has emerged.
Fact Check: Trump’s statement on RCP8.5 is partly accurate but misleading
Trump is referring to the RCP8.5 scenario, which is one of several tools scientists use to study possible future climate outcomes. This scenario assumes very high coal use and continued growth in emissions. Because global energy trends and policies have shifted, many researchers now see this extreme pathway as unlikely, and some describe it as “implausible.”
Even so, scientists have not rejected or removed RCP8.5. They still use it as a “worst-case” benchmark to understand what could happen under extreme pollution levels. Climate studies, including those assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, rely on several scenarios and do not call RCP8.5 incorrect or invalid.
Trump partly reflects current scientific debate, since some experts do question how realistic RCP8.5 is today. However, his claim oversimplifies the issue by suggesting scientists discarded it, when in reality it remains a valid upper-limit scenario used for risk analysis.
In fact, the scenario comes from a 2011 work linked to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A more recent study published this year revisited it and found that RCP8.5 is unlikely based on today’s emissions trends and assumptions.
