GOP surges in general ballot, moves closer to defying congressional midterm history: Poll

WASHINGTON, DC: A new poll shows Republicans gaining ground on the general ballot, positioning the party to challenge historical trends in the upcoming congressional midterm elections.

The Harvard Harris poll, released this week, reveals that the GOP is closing the gap with Democrats.

Harvard Harris poll shows GOP surge

The poll asked respondents whether they would vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Congress if the election were held today, finding likely midterm voters evenly split.

The results mark an eight-point swing toward Republicans in the Harvard Harris poll since January, when 54 percent said they would vote for Democrats and 46 percent chose Republicans.

Historically, the party of the sitting president loses seats in Congress during midterm elections. However, recent polling suggests Republicans are gaining ground, with voters signaling increased support for the GOP on the general ballot compared to earlier surveys.

GOP seeks to hold House, Senate

Only twice has a party kept control of both chambers of Congress during a midterm election with a president from the same party.

In 1934, amid the Great Depression, Democrats expanded their House and Senate majorities under President Franklin D Roosevelt.

In 2002, following the September 11 attacks, Republicans increased their majorities under President George W Bush.

White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Legislative, Political, and Public Affairs James Blair told SiriusXM’s Breitbart News Saturday that he believes Republicans can defy history in the upcoming midterms and retain their congressional majorities.

Shutdown fallout boosts Republicans on economy

Since January, Democrats have faced setbacks following their third government shutdown in just over a year since President Donald Trump’s inauguration.

The government is currently in a partial shutdown, with the Department of Homeland Security operating without congressional funding. As a result, several critical security functions have halted, and thousands of employees are working without pay.

The survey was conducted online across the United States on February 25–26, 2026, among 1,999 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX.

Several factors may be contributing to the Republican surge. Economic concerns, particularly inflation and wage stagnation, remain top issues for many voters. Republicans argue that policies such as tax relief and deregulation would spur economic growth and increase Americans’ incomes.