‘His time’ or not? JD Vance wrestles with 2028 decision after GOP midterm blowout
WASHINGTON, DC: Long considered the heir apparent to President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance is reconsidering his 2028 presidential bid following a sweeping GOP loss.
Other Republicans are also moving to position themselves for the 2028 race, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp.
JD Vance is wrestling with his political future
JD Vance has been the front-runner for the GOP nomination in the 2028 presidential election, but people close to him revealed that Vance is unsure whether 2028 is the right time for him to run for president.
A CNN report, which said it had spoken with “roughly a dozen of the vice president’s allies and his advisers,” reported that the vice president is wrestling with his political ambitions.
However, Vance's allies said he remains committed to rebuilding the movement that helped Trump win in 2024 but is unsure whether he should lead it.
“I wouldn’t be surprised by any decision he makes,” one of those people said. “He’s only 42. He’s young enough that he can have a comeback should this environment make success impossible. It just may not be his time.”
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026
Vance's supporters saw his lengthy post on X the morning after the midterms, in which he blamed the Iran war for the Republicans' losses, as a sign of how he might approach a possible presidential campaign.
However, reports suggest Vance’s post irritated President Donald Trump.
In private conversations with friends and allies, however, Vance appears less certain about his plans. People close to him said he had not made up his mind at the start of the year.
Republicans concerned if any candidate could win race in current political climate
Vance’s uncertainty comes amid questions about whether any Republican can win in the current political climate.
The birth of his fourth child this summer had also led to speculation inside the White House that he might put his presidential ambitions on hold.
“The question isn’t if JD can do it; it’s if the Iran war is still happening, can any Republican do it? If they don’t end the war in Iran, no Republican has a shot at 2028,” a Vance ally was quoted as saying in the report.
Much of Trump’s political future also depends on whether he can bring the unpopular conflict to a swift conclusion without further eroding the public’s trust in the White House.
Some of Vance’s closest allies say he is not too concerned about the midterm results, arguing that two years is enough time for public opinion to shift in his favor. They also believe that if he decides to run in 2028, he will dominate the Republican primaries.
Terry Schilling, president of the influential social conservative group American Principles Project, said Vance would be making a mistake if he dropped his presidential plans for political reasons.
“He’s basically teed up to be the general and we’re going into one of the biggest battles,” Schilling said. “I would be surprised if he doesn’t run.”
