Jesse Watters backs Trump's claim of poll manipulation, says they are 'dramatically oversampling Democrats'
WASHINGTON, DC: Jesse Watters has reinforced former President Donald Trump’s assertions that recent polls showing Kamala Harris in the lead are flawed, despite experts affirming the validity of these surveys.
On Sunday, August 18, the Fox News host criticized the methodology behind these polls, alleging that "pollsters are dramatically oversampling Democrats and then burying the samples so you can’t see it," as per The Independent.
This follows Watters' earlier claim that the mainstream media was "juicing the polls."
Jesse Watters criticizes New York Times/Siena College poll, but experts defend its accuracy
On his primetime show, Jesse Watters specifically cited a New York Times/Siena College poll that indicated Kamala Harris was leading by four points in crucial battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
The Trump campaign had previously denounced this poll in a memo, contending that it inadequately represented Trump supporters from the 2020 election, thereby skewing the results in favor of Harris.
(Scott Olson/Getty Images)
The Times/Siena survey is "one of the most accurate polls that we can rely on," according to Dr Andrew Crosby, a professor and survey methodology expert from the University of California, Riverside.
Dr Crosby refuted the campaign’s criticisms, stating, "The Trump campaign is basically alleging that their sample is not what it should be. There’s not any truth to that." He explained that the poll’s trustworthiness comes from its use of random selection and the high number of respondents.
Additionally, he noted that asking people to list their political party helps ensure the poll is representative of a state’s population, emphasizing that party identification is a more reliable metric than reported past voting.
"People can forget who they voted for, or don’t want to admit that they voted for a certain candidate," explained the professor.
Experts point out that Trump campaign wasn't contesting polls when Donald Trump was leading
In response to the Trump campaign's criticisms, the New York Times made a similar argument, noting that relying on reported past voting to ensure their 2020 and 2022 polls were representative would have made them less accurate.
Dr Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, mentioned that Times/Siena polls are reputable and the pollsters are "certainly heavily invested" in using the proper methodology.
He also observed that "as far as I know, the Trump organization was not contesting polls when Trump was ahead," referencing a Times/Siena poll from May that showed Trump leading in five key swing states before President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 race.
Dr Christian Grose, a professor of political science at the University of Southern California, emphasized that polls are "a snapshot in time" and can fluctuate based on changing voter sentiment and significant events like debates and rallies. He told The Independent, "It doesn’t mean the poll is wrong, it just means the poll was not asking people on election day."
In addition to the Times/Siena poll, other surveys also suggest that Harris holds an advantage over Trump.
According to an average of five national polls, she is leading by 2.5 points. A recent CBS/YouGov poll, which surveyed up to August 16, reveals a growing gender divide among voters, with more men supporting Trump and more women backing Harris.
