Online betting markets peg Zohran Mamdani as 'prohibitive favorite' to win NYC Mayor race

NEW YORK CITY, NEW YORK: Several major online betting markets claimed that the New York City's Mayoral race is over, with Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani as the runaway favorite, aheld on Tuesday, November 4.

Mamdani, a self-proclaimed Democratic socialist, defeated former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary earlier this year. Following this, Cuomo decided to take another swing at Mamdani by running as an independent. They will also face Republican Curtis Sliwa.

Online betting sites give Zohran Mamdani more than 90 percent chance of winning

Curtis Sliwa has floundered in the polls, and many prominent Republicans have endorsed Cuomo, called for Sliwa to drop out, or both.

Meanwhile, current NYC mayor Eric Adams dropped out of the Democratic primary in April 2025, became independent, and exited the race altogether in late September. He also endorsed Cuomo.

Interestingly, on Monday, November 3, online betting markets showed how gamblers view Zohran Mamdani’s chances, as several major sites gave him a more than 90 percent chance of victory. 

Polymarket gave Mamdani a 92 percent chance of winning the election, as well as predicted that he would be the strong favorite in four of the city’s five boroughs — all but the most heavily-GOP, Staten Island.

Meanwhile, Cuomo had an 8 percent chance with Polymarket’s bettors, and Sliwa was basically nonexistent, falling below 1 percent, and ranking below Adams’ own less than 1 percent score.

Moreover, PredictIt too had similar output with the price of betting Mamdani would win at $0.90, Cuomo at $0.15, and Sliwa at $0.01. 

Furthermore, PredictIt’s bettors are also betting Mamdani will win big. Betting Mamdani will win by 24 percent or more is going for $0.22.

Ben Mendelowitz at VegasInsider wrote, "The New York City mayoral race has officially moved from competitive to lopsided — and the betting markets are treating it as all but decided,” with Mamdani as “a prohibitive favorite." 

Interestingly, Mamdani improved his fortunes over the past few months. 

Mendelowitz wrote Mamdani's probability rose from a "coin flip in June (54.5 percent) to a dominant 97.0 percent probability," while "Cuomo’s odds collapsed, dropping from 47.6 percent to single-digit longshot (8.8 percent), and "Sliwa remains a deep longshot, holding steady in the 1–3 percent range."

He added, "With Mamdani sitting at 97% implied probability, the betting market views this race as essentially over. Polls may continue to fluctuate, but the money is speaking loudly."

Mendelowitz said Mamdani "is the overwhelming betting favorite" to win the election.

Zohran Mamdani delivers powerful speech across Brooklyn Bridge

 Zohran Mamdani greeted the dawn on Monday with a symbolic show of momentum, walking across the Brooklyn Bridge alongside dozens of supporters carrying a banner that read "Our Time Is Now".

Interestingly, the sunrise walk marked the near-end of Mamdani’s year-long campaign, which was centered on affordability, workers’ rights, and immigrant communities.

"There were few in this city who dared imagine that we could win and what it could mean for a city that has for too long served only the wealthy and the powerful. But we are proving that the sun rises for all of us," Mamdani said.

Standing near City Hall after his bridge walk, Mamdani delivered a sunrise address that mixed optimism with resolve.

He added, "When the sun comes up, everything changes — shadows lift off the river, light reflects off of office building windows, and you start to feel the warmth of a new day."

"That was how it felt when we beat Andrew Cuomo, and it’s how we’ll feel again tomorrow when polls close at 9 pm", the NY mayoral nominee concluded.