5 twists that could impact the election before November: From candidates' health to global crises
5 twists that could impact the 2024 presidential election before November
Nearly six months are left before the voters elect the 47th president of the United States. President Joe Biden and his predecessor, Donald Trump, are again in a rematch for a second term in the White House. However, the possibility of any unexpected development could bring a twist in the path of the much-anticipated election. From global crises to Trump's ongoing criminal trials, here are five possible scenarios that could shake up the presidential race before the November 5 Election Day.
1. Health concerns force Biden and Trump to quit race
Both Biden and Trump are the oldest persons to engage in a White House race in the history of the US. The incumbent is already 81, while his predecessor will turn 78 in June. Though the demands to choose someone younger have quieted, their potential health issues continue to be a concern among the voters. Both major party nominees are firm on their ability to carry out presidential duties if elected for a second term. In February, Biden received a "fit for duty" declaration from his physician; meanwhile, last November, Trump's physician announced the former president was in "excellent health and the test results had "normal health limits." In addition, he also received an "exceptional" result in cognitive exams. Despite not having suffered any critical health condition so far, the possibility remains due to their elderliness. If any such issues arise, the candidate will be forced to step aside, giving way to a younger and healthier one.
2. An international conflict
Another likely possibility that could topple the election is an international crisis. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war are already impacting the presidential race. Despite the US not directly involved in these conflicts, the Biden administration had pushed the House GOP for more military assistance to Ukraine. Furthermore, Israel's war on Gaza has put Biden in a predicament due to the anti-Isarel protests across campuses. The current administration's inability to put a stop to the war on Gaza forced pro-Palestinians to vote "uncommitted" in Democratic primaries, causing a dent in Biden's votes in states like Michigan. If Russia expands its attack to a NATO country or Iran gets involved in the Israel-Hamas war, it could be either a boon or curse to Biden's campaign, depending on voters' views.
3. RFK Jr or other third-party candidates gaining popularity
Third-party contenders, especially Robert F Kennedy Jr, are trailing behind the major party candidates. However, the leading candidates have turned critical of the independent opponent, fearing he might take away their votes. Trump recently called Kennedy Jr, who at times polled slightly above 10 percent, a "Democrat plant." The ex-president also said he was "not a serious candidate." Other third-party candidates include Cornel West and Green Party's Jill Stein. Though any of these contenders' White House entry seems very unlikely, a surge in their popularity and vote share could lead to unusual results in the November election.
4. An economic downturn or recession
The economy is among the focal points in the 2024 presidential election. Despite record-low unemployment under the Biden administration, polls indicate that a majority of voters are pessimistic. Irrespective of the below 4 percent unemployment rate, voters are concerned about looming inflation which continues to exceed the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. The Biden campaign is touting a stable economy and maintaining low unemployment as the current administration's significant achievements. However, if the US gets hit with an economic downturn or a recession, the president may fail to convince voters about his economic message. On the other hand, a reduction in inflation, leading the Fed to decrease interest rates, could boost Biden's race.
5. Trump conviction in New York hush money case
A major possibility that could impact the 2024 presidential election stems from Trump's ongoing criminal trial. He is the first president, sitting or former, in the history of the US to go for a criminal trial. Trump is on trial in Manhattan for falsifying business records to hide hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels shortly before the 2016 election to silence her about their sex scandal. Trump can prove his claim that the charges are politically motivated if he is found not guilty. On the other hand, what would happen if he is convicted remains unclear. According to the recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll, 57 percent of respondents considered the hush money charges serious. The same percent agreed that the MAGA spearhead should not be allowed to serve as president if convicted of a serious crime.
