AOC’s Prop 50 ad outshines Obama, Newsom in Democratic messaging battle

SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez delivered the most effective Democratic ad in the battle over California’s Proposition 50, according to internal research from Future Forward, the party’s main super PAC.

The private data showed her spot outperforming ads from Gov. Gavin Newsom and former President Barack Obama, a striking result in a campaign where both heavily promoted the ballot measure.

The findings, obtained by Axios, highlight Ocasio-Cortez’s rising influence within the party and underscore how her messaging resonated more strongly with voters in a high-stakes redistricting fight that passed by a wide margin earlier this month.

AOC’s Prop 50 ad ranks No. 1 among Democrats, internal data shows

Future Forward tested 16 ads in support of Prop 50, which temporarily suspends California’s independent citizen redistricting commission and allows Democrats in the Legislature to draw a new congressional map projected to gain the party up to five House seats.

In an October 21 email to Democratic operatives, Future Forward’s data chief, Aaron Strauss, wrote, “Of all the ads on our side, one stands out as the clear winner: AOC’s spot that connects the perhaps esoteric issue of redistricting to real-world impacts.” He said the ad increased support for Prop 50 by 5.1 percentage points, edging out Obama’s second-place spot, which boosted support by 4.3 points.

Ads featuring Newsom and other Democrats, including Rep. Jasmine Crockett and Sen. Alex Padilla, performed less effectively by comparison.

In her direct-to-camera message, Ocasio-Cortez framed Prop 50 as a necessary check on former President Donald Trump’s redistricting push. “Donald Trump is redrawing election maps to force through a Congress that answers only to him,” she said in the spot, adding that stopping him was vital “for our healthcare, our paychecks, and our freedoms. With Prop 50, we can stop him.”

The campaign leaned heavily on online distribution, running English- and Spanish-language versions of her ad.

Prop 50 passage and legal and political fallout

California voters approved Prop 50 by roughly a 2-to-1 margin, amending the state constitution to allow Democratic legislators to control congressional mapmaking through the end of the decade. Nonpartisan analysts described the resulting map as an “aggressive Democratic gerrymander,” expected to more than double the partisan tilt of current lines and specifically target multiple Republican-held districts.

The passage has sparked significant legal challenges. California Republicans and national GOP groups filed lawsuits accusing Newsom and legislative Democrats of overriding voters who originally backed the independent redistricting commission and of using race to engineer favorable districts. The Trump administration’s Justice Department also brought suit, according to Reuters.

AOC’s rising national profile and Newsom’s response

The strong performance of Ocasio-Cortez’s ad comes as her team positions her for a potential 2028 presidential or Senate run. The findings suggest she could sway voters even in Newsom’s home state, which holds more Democratic delegates than any other and accounted for about 10% of the party’s overall total in 2024.

Newsom’s allies downplayed the internal rankings. His campaign spokesperson, Nathan Click, told Axios, “The governor is very grateful to all of the leaders from across the party who came together to help Prop 50 pass by a 20-point margin.”