Democrats energized for midterms but unhappy with party leadership, poll shows
WASHINGTON, DC: Democrats appeared poised to enter the midterm election cycle with a motivated base and an advantage on the generic congressional ballot, according to a new national CNN poll published on Sunday, January 18.
The survey showed that while Democratic voters were highly energized to vote, they remained dissatisfied with their party’s leadership in Congress.
Republicans, by contrast, showed less overall motivation but stronger approval of their leaders. The findings highlighted a political environment characterized by voter frustration, partisan division, and uncertainty ahead of the November election.
Democrats show stronger midterm motivation
The poll found that Democratic registered voters were significantly more motivated to participate in the upcoming midterm elections than their Republican counterparts.
While Democrats held a 5-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot overall, that lead expanded to 16 points among voters who described themselves as “deeply motivated” to cast a ballot.
The generic ballot asked voters which party they would prefer to support in congressional elections and was often used as an early indicator of national political momentum.
Similar margins were seen in early 2018, ahead of the election cycle in which Democrats regained control of the US House, while voters were evenly split at this stage in 2022, when Republicans later won a narrow majority.
The results suggested that Democrats might benefit from broader public dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and the Republican-controlled government.
A majority of respondents described the first year of Trump’s second term as a failure, and approval among independents stood at just 29%.
Despite that motivation, views of Democratic leadership in Congress remained poor. Just 28% of Americans approved of Democratic leaders, compared with 35% approval for Republican leaders.
Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, large majorities said that their party had done too little to oppose Trump and had been ineffective in pushing back against Republican policies.
Seventy-one percent of Democratic-aligned respondents said Democrats in Congress have been ineffective at resisting Republican policies, up from 51% at the start of the current Congress.
Those who are most motivated to vote were especially critical, with many saying they did not feel represented at all by the federal government.
Trump addresses polling as GOP voters remain aligned with party leadership
The polling landscape comes as Trump publicly addressed the prospect of Republican losses in the midterms.
In an interview with Reuters on Wednesday, Trump acknowledged the historical pattern of the president’s party losing seats during midterm elections.
“It’s some deep psychological thing, but when you win the presidency, you don’t win the midterms,” Trump said. He added that his administration’s accomplishments had been so extensive that “when you think of it, we shouldn't even have an election.”
Trump also dismissed concerns about high prices and unfavorable polling, arguing that the US economy was the strongest “in history.” “A lot of times, you can't convince a voter,” he said. “You have to just do what's right.”
While overall public confidence in congressional Republicans’ effectiveness had declined, with 61% saying that the GOP had been at least somewhat effective in passing laws, down from 76% a year earlier, Republican voters largely remained supportive of their leaders.
Within the party, a majority said that Republicans were doing the right amount to support Trump, and two-thirds believed he had a positive effect on the party. Support was strongest among those who identified with the 'Make America Great Again' movement.
