Harry Enten predicts midterms trouble for Trump over focus on immigration instead of economy
WASHINGTON, DC: CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten on Thursday, February 6, warned that President Donald Trump could face significant political trouble in the 2026 midterm elections.
He argued that public dissatisfaction with the economy and a mismatch between voter priorities and White House messaging are creating a difficult environment for Republicans.
Polls show 55% people saying economy getting worse
Enten pointed to recent polling showing a growing share of Americans who believe the economy is worsening, despite Trump’s claims of improving economic sentiment.
According to Enten, 42% of Americans said the economy was getting worse shortly after Trump’s re-election in 2024. That figure has since climbed to 55%.
“You get elected to fix the economy, and the American people, they ain’t buying it,” Enten said, adding that historically, a majority believing the economy is deteriorating has been “a formula that equals failure” for the party in power.
Public’s focus on economy, but Trump talks immigration
Enten also highlighted a gap between what voters think should be prioritized and the issues dominating Trump administration rhetoric.
Lowering prices was cited as the top priority by 54% of respondents, Enten said, compared with 22% who prioritised controlling immigration and only 10% who focused on reducing crime.
“You don’t have to be a mathematical genius to know that 54 is larger than 32,” he said, referring to the combined share of voters naming immigration and crime.
However, during a press gaggle on Air Force One, Trump highlighted falling prices, including gasoline, and framed them as proof that his policies are improving affordability for Americans.
Trump also pointed to stock market doing well.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average had just closed above 50,000 for the first time,the president said, calling the milestone “three years ahead of schedule” compared with what he says experts had predicted.
On Truth Social, he used the historic benchmark to tout the strength of the US stock market under his presidency.
Democrats hold 14-point lead over Republicans
Meanwhile, Enten argued that the data shows that the economy-immigration disconnect is already showing up in partisan trust on economic issues.
On affordability, Democrats hold a 14-point advantage over Republicans overall, he said, with an even wider gap among independents, where Democrats lead by 39 points.
“This is the entire ball game right here,” Enten said, suggesting that continued focus on issues voters rank lower could hand Democrats a significant advantage if current trends persist.
While acknowledging that polling can change before the midterms, Enten said recent special election results suggest the pattern may be holding.
“Donald Trump was elected to fix the economy,” he said. “At this point, 55% say the economy is getting worse.”
CNN anchor Sarah Sidner noted that it remains to be seen whether these trends will carry through to November 2026.
Enten agreed, but added that if voter perceptions remain unchanged, the political consequences for Republicans could be severe.
