Mamdani holds solid lead over Cuomo despite Adams dropping out, analysts say shift unlikely

NEW YORK CITY, NEW YORK: Analysts believe Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani is well ahead of Andrew Cuomo in the New York mayoral race, and something would have to "dramatically change" for there to be a shift in the polling for him to lose.

New York City Mayor Eric Adams' decision to suspend his sputtering reelection bid is unlikely to slow the upstart candidacy of Mamdani, political analysts said on Monday, September 29.

Political analysts say 'something would have to dramatically change' for Mamdani to lose the race

Basil Smikle, political analyst and professor at Columbia University's School of Professional Studies, said, "Mamdani is well ahead of Cuomo and something would have to dramatically change the narrative of the race for there to be a shift in the polling to suggest Mamdani could lose, and I don't see that happening right now."

Interestingly, Mamdani said on Monday he was not interested in commenting on what Adams' departure meant for his campaign.

"A lot of the focus has been on the question of the impact it may have on Election Day, what it means for the horse race. What it loses sight of is that for New Yorkers who are struggling to afford the most expensive city in the United States of America, nothing has changed," Mamdani told reporters at a campaign event in uptown Manhattan.

Before the news on Sunday, September 28, a Marist University poll showed Mamdani leading with 45 percent support, compared with around 24 percent for Cuomo.

Meanwhile, Adams and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa trailed with 9 percent and 17 percent, respectively.

Notably, Mamdani's candidacy has been on a roll, as he received endorsements from party holdouts such as former Vice President Kamala Harris and New York Governor Kathy Hochul.

Mamdani holds solid edge on Cuomo in fund-raising

Mamdani held a solid edge over Cuomo in fundraising over the summer, collecting around $15 million compared to $9 million for the former governor, largely due to a record number of small donations, according to the most recent data, which included August disclosures.

Meanwhile, Cuomo's campaign could benefit from Adams' departure if donations pick up again from powerful business interests concerned about Mamdani's progressive agenda.

Interestingly, before the primary, big donors poured millions of dollars into the pro-Cuomo political action committee Fix the City. It operates independently of direct campaign funding.

A source familiar with the PAC's planning but unauthorized to speak on the record told a news agency, "We have seen an uptick in interest from donors and supporters over the past 24 hours and will be working to maximize our resources to ensure that Andrew Cuomo is elected in November."

Mamdani says Trump's donors 'will not dictate' NYC mayoral race after Eric Adams' exit

Zohran Mamdani took aim at President Donald Trump and his billionaire donors on Sunday, declaring they "will not dictate" the outcome of the election.

He accused the POTUS of trying to tilt the race in favor of independent candidate Andrew Cuomo, warning that outside influence won’t decide the city’s future.

Mamdani delivered a pointed rebuke of Trump and his supporters as he appeared on MSNBC.

"Donald Trump and his billionaire donors may be able to determine the actions of Eric Adams and Andrew Cuomo, but they will not dictate the results of this election. This continues to be the same election as it was when we started on October 23rd [2024]," he said.

He also accused Trump of trying to manipulate the race by backing certain candidates and undermining his campaign for affordability.

"Donald Trump has spoken time and again about how he wants to narrow this race, how he wants to use every tool at his disposal to try and stop this campaign for affordability. And we’re seeing, amidst all of that here, yet again, the moment where he is shaping this race. But we’re going to show him that New Yorkers are tired of his politics and they’re tired of being priced out of the city," Mamdani said.