NBC data expert Steve Kornacki reveals how Trump's iron grip on MAGA base is softening

WASHINGTON, DC: NBC’s chief data analyst Steve Kornacki dropped an eyebrow-raiser on Sunday, December 14, as he revealed that President Donald Trump may be starting to lose his iron grip on his own party.

Appearing alongside Kristen Welker on 'Meet the Press', Kornacki walked through fresh polling data that showed softening support among previously described "unmovable" MAGA voters.

Kornacki opened the segment by framing the moment as what was "politically a tough ending of the year for Republicans and for President Trump," before delving into Trump’s overall standing with voters.

According to the poll, Trump currently sits at a 42% approval rating, down from 45% in April. Kornacki noted that the dip fits a pattern, explaining that "his approval rating has existed in a pretty narrow range the entire time both terms he’s been in office."

Trouble brewing inside the GOP?

Kornacki hinted that the real warning signs aren’t coming from Democrats or independents, but from inside Trump’s own tent.

“I think maybe more worryingly for Trump, though, here, when you look at his approval rating—look inside his own party,” Kornacki said. “Now, overall it’s close to a 90% approval rating with Republicans, but the intensity, how about this? The folks who say they don’t just approve, they strongly approve.”

That’s where the numbers start to split. Among Republicans who identify as “MAGA GOP,” a hefty 70% said they strongly approve of Trump. But among traditional Republicans, that figure drops sharply to just 35%.

“And Kristen, that’s a change from the start of the year here, with 78% strongly from MAGA, 38% traditional Republicans,” Kornacki added.

Welker noted the significance of the shift, “So this is really one to watch, because historically the MAGA base has been unmovable.”

Kornacki agreed, albeit with a caveat. “Yeah, and one thing we should note on this too, Kristen, this is an online poll, this is looking at all adults, not just registered voters... but that’s significant, certainly, if that’s something you start seeing across the board,” he said.

MAGA no longer the clear majority

Kornacki then turned to a broader question of how many Republicans still see themselves as MAGA first.

“The other thing here, along these same lines, just look at the composition of the Republican Party. We asked Republicans, ‘Do you identify more with MAGA, or with just the Republican Party itself?’” Kornacki explained.

The results showed an even split. Half of Republicans now identify as MAGA, while the other half aligns with the GOP more generally.

That’s a notable drop from earlier this year. Kornacki pointed out that MAGA identifiers stood at 57% in April, but that edge has since vanished.

“So moving more away from that, potentially,” Kornacki surmised.

CNN flags similar warning signs ahead of 2026

Kornacki’s analysis wasn’t the only reality check for Trump in recent days. Just days earlier, CNN data expert Harry Enten delivered similar warning signs as Republicans look toward the 2026 midterm elections.

Speaking on Friday, Enten pointed to Indiana Republicans’ rejection of Trump’s redistricting push as evidence that even loyal voters may be growing more willing to defy him. The episode followed a series of recent local and state election losses by Trump-backed Republicans.

Enten noted that in March, 66% of Trump’s 2024 voters strongly approved of his job performance as president. That number has since dropped to 50%.

“Trump voters still like Donald Trump, but they don’t love him as much, and that means there’s a permission structure to actually go against him. And that is exactly what you saw in Indiana. As I said, ‘He’s not a machine, he’s not a machine. He’s a man.’ You can go against him, as exactly they did in Indiana,” Enten said on CNN.

The Indiana episode offered a concrete example. On Thursday, Republicans in the state rejected a redrawn congressional map that would have favored their party, despite Trump pushing hard for its approval. He had even reportedly threatened to withhold funding from the state if GOP lawmakers voted against the measure, but they didn't cave to his demand.