New 2028 presidential polls show Democrats circling back to a familiar name

WASHINGTON, DC: The first real snapshots of the 2028 Democratic presidential primary are beginning to emerge, and they show a familiar name sitting comfortably at the top.

Recent surveys from February 2026 indicate that former Vice President Kamala Harris is leading the field among Democratic voters considering potential candidates for the party’s nomination.

These polls come less than two years after her 2024 presidential run, which ended in defeat across all swing states and marked the first time a Democrat had lost the popular vote in two decades. The numbers suggest that some in the party are open to giving Harris another look, despite the outcome of the last cycle. 

Kamala Harris leads early 2028 Democratic primary polls

A Focaldata poll conducted on February 10 among 1,148 voters asked respondents to choose from a list of 10 potential candidates. Harris received 39% support in the Democratic primary field. California Gov Gavin Newsom came in second with 21%, followed by Rep Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10%.

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Pennsylvania Gov Josh Shapiro each drew 7%, Arizona Sen Mark Kelly received 6%, Michigan Gov Gretchen Whitmer 4%, Illinois Gov JB Pritzker 3%, and Kentucky Gov Andy Beshear and Georgia Sen Jon Ossoff each received 1%. In a head-to-head matchup from the same poll, Harris defeated Newsom 56% to 44%.

The Focaldata report noted, “Despite her 2024 loss, Kamala Harris leads the early race with 39% from a 10-candidate prompt in the Democratic primary, before beating Newsom 56-44% in a head-to-head. Pete Buttigieg finishes third, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez places fourth.”

A separate Harvard/Harris poll from late January (conducted January 28–29 among 2,000 registered voters, margin of error 1.99%) showed similar results. Harris stood at 39%, Newsom at 30%, Ocasio-Cortez at 12%, Shapiro at 9%, and Pritzker at 7%, with 4% saying someone else.

Polling averages compiled around mid-February placed Harris at approximately 27–29% nationally, with Newsom in the low 20s and the rest of the field trailing further behind. These are interactive name-recognition exercises rather than formal primary voting, but they provide an initial gauge of name familiarity and baseline support.

Newsom, AOC trail Kamala Harris in early 2028 Democratic race

Beyond Harris and Newsom, the early polling reflects a wide-open race with no clear consensus challenger.

Ocasio-Cortez holds appeal among progressives, while figures such as Buttigieg, Shapiro, and Kelly draw interest from more moderate or swing-state-oriented voters. Governors like Whitmer and Pritzker appear in the single digits, while others such as Beshear and Ossoff remain in the low single digits. Newsom himself has been noncommittal about his future plans. "I'm not thinking about running, but it's a path that I could see unfold," he said in comments reported last year.

Several potential candidates, including Newsom, Ocasio-Cortez, and Whitmer, have been active on international stages such as the Munich Security Conference, using the platform to discuss foreign policy and other issues that could potentially shape a future presidential bid.

Betting markets such as Kalshi currently give Newsom higher implied odds of eventually securing the nomination (around 31–32%), with Ocasio-Cortez at about 9–12% and Harris lower.

Economy, Trump performance shape early 2028 polls

Columbia University political science professor Robert Y Shapiro offered context on what is influencing these early figures.

He told Newsweek that recent polling trends, including Democratic gains in midterm-style surveys, stem partly from “the perceived state of the economy, and it's not meeting voters' expectations, given Trump's promises. Also, the disruption caused by ICE officers' overly aggressive actions against immigrants."

"Voters don't like disruption in general and especially when it has been caused by government-related actions. Also, the distraction provided by the Epstein scandal has added to bad news for Republicans in how the FBI and the Justice Department has mishandled the investigation and evidence," Shapiro said.

According to him, early polling is “confirming what is widely perceived that voters are disappointed by [President Donald] Trump's performance and this is hurting Republicans in the midterm election polling.”

Of course, it is February 2026, and the midterms are still months away. Actual 2028 primary campaigns are unlikely to launch until 2027, and a great deal can change between now and then.