Polls show Trump remains strong with GOP base even as overall approval falters

WASHINGTON, DC: President Donald Trump’s approval ratings remain subdued among the broader US public heading into the 2026 midterm elections, even as polling shows his standing with Republican voters remains largely intact.

Recent surveys underscore a growing divide between how Trump is viewed by his party’s base and by independents and Democrats, a gap likely to shape campaign strategies as both parties prepare for highly competitive midterm contests later this year.

Polls show Trump’s national standing

According to Pew Research Center's survey published Thursday, just 37% of Americans approve of Trump’s performance as president, placing him well below the majority threshold a year into his second term.

Gallup’s most recent poll from December showed a similar picture, with Trump’s approval at 36% and 59% of respondents saying they disapproved of the job he was doing.

Support among Democratic voters remains minimal, registering in the single digits across multiple surveys. Independents, a group that played a crucial role in Trump’s return to the White House, have also cooled significantly.

Gallup data from December found that only about one in four independent voters approved of Trump’s performance, reflecting growing unease among voters who do not align firmly with either.

Republicans remain largely satisfied

Despite weak national numbers, Trump continues to command strong loyalty within the Republican Party.

Among self-identified Republicans and Republican-leaning voters, solid majorities say they are satisfied with Trump’s leadership and believe he represents their priorities, even as some express reservations about specific aspects of his presidency.

“We have a president who is kind of historically lacking in support,” John Mark Hansen, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, told DW. “But the support that he does have is rock solid. There doesn’t seem to be anything that can tear probably 80% to 85% of Republican voters away from him.”

While some polling shows declining confidence among Republicans in areas such as ethics, temperament, and handling of key issues, Trump’s backing within the GOP remains far stronger than his support among independents or Democrats.

Immigration and unrest shape voter views

Experts say Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement and response to unrest in major cities may be contributing to the widening partisan divide.

“Democrats especially care a great deal about what’s happening in places like Minneapolis and other cities where ICE has been deployed,” Kathryn Dunn Tenpas, a presidential scholar at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center, told DW.

“For independents and Republicans who are not strong Trump loyalists, there is growing disaffection with what’s occurring,” she added.

Tenpas noted that images of immigration raids, troop deployments, and protests in cities such as Chicago and Los Angeles could weigh heavily on voters’ minds as the midterms approach.

Overall, the polling suggests Trump enters the 2026 election cycle with a coalition firmly anchored within the Republican Party, but persistent skepticism among the wider electorate, a dynamic that could prove decisive in closely contested races.