Utah Valley projected only 600 attendees at event Charlie Kirk was shot but nearly 3,000 showed up

OREM, UTAH: Newly released Utah Valley University records show that Turning Point USA severely miscalculated how many people would attend the campus event where its founder, Charlie Kirk, was fatally shot on September 10, 2024, raising fresh questions about how the university and organizers planned for what ultimately became a massive crowd.

The documents, obtained by ABC News through a public-records request, reveal that UVU initially expected only 600 attendees, while the real turnout swelled to nearly 3,000, overwhelming the planning assumptions made weeks before the event.

UVU’s early estimates for Charlie Kirk were far below reality

According to the partially redacted questionnaire, a Turning Point USA student organizer had first selected the “200+” attendance option on the university’s online form during the early planning phase in July. That figure was later revised upward to 600, based on a similar event previously held at the University of Utah.

UVU Police Chief Jeffrey Long told reporters shortly after the shooting that approximately 3,000 people ultimately gathered at the Sorensen Student Center courtyard for Kirk’s “American Comeback” tour stop, adding that six campus police officers were assigned to the event alongside Kirk’s private security detail.

A Turning Point USA spokesperson clarified the shifting estimate in a statement to ABC News: “An estimate of 600 was later provided… based on a similar event the year prior at the University of Utah. Subsequent conversations… updated that estimate to 1,500 – 2,000 based on more recent ‘Prove Me Wrong’ events.”

Still, the final turnout surpassed even the updated projections.

Suggesting a larger venue but no EMS planned

The newly released forms also show that a UVU staff member recommended moving the event to the FL Quad, describing it as “better space-wise for the group, if they get a large crowd.” The suggestion, however, was not adopted.

The Turning Point organizer also checked “no” on the question regarding whether emergency medical services should be scheduled. As a result, no first-aid station was present when Kirk was shot. He was transported to a hospital, where he later died.

Details of Charlie Kirk shooting and criminal case

Kirk, 31, a married father of two, was speaking outdoors when he was hit by a sniper’s bullet fired from a nearby rooftop.

Tyler Robinson, 22, was arrested after a short manhunt and charged with aggravated murder, firearm discharge, obstruction of justice, witness tampering, and committing violence in the presence of a child. Prosecutors intend to seek the death penalty, and Robinson is due back in court in January.

UVU defends its security response as Charlie Kirk shooting

In a statement defending its law-enforcement presence, UVU said, “Officers protect students, employees, visitors, and property, and take a proactive approach to crime prevention, education, and community engagement.”

The university added that it is hiring eight additional police officers and two new security managers to strengthen event oversight.

Poll shows Americans see rhetoric as a factor

Earlier this week, an NBC poll found that a majority of Americans believe “extreme political rhetoric” played a central role in Kirk’s killing, a rare moment of national bipartisan agreement on the issue.