CNN’s Harry Enten says Democrats can ‘absolutely’ win Texas Senate seat this time

AUSTIN, TEXAS: For years, the idea of flipping a Texas Senate seat has been a political daydream for the Democrats. CNN's Harry Enten argued on Wednesday, May 20, that this time, the numbers may be giving the party an actual case.

Appearing with CNN anchor John Berman, the network’s senior data correspondent walked through polling in the Texas Senate race and argued that Democrats shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand.

“It’s simply put—they’re looking at the numbers. They are looking at numbers, and the idea that Democrats can’t win in Texas, I want to put that to rest. They could very well do it. James Talarico could very well win in Texas,” Enten began.

Harry Enten says polls look different this time

Enten pointed to the 2018 Senate race between Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz. Back then, excitement around O’Rourke’s campaign fueled speculation that Texas might finally turn competitive. Enten argued the polling never really backed that up.

“And I want to use a comparison point with 2018 because there was all this talk about Beto O’Rourke, right? ‘Oh, could he beat Ted Cruz?’ He could beat Ted. The numbers at this point in that campaign, simply put, did not support that conclusion. But the numbers at that point absolutely support the conclusion that James Talarico can win,” he explained.

He then laid out the contrast. “So take a look. Texas Senate polls in May of the election year. When you matched up O’Rourke, Beto O’Rourke versus Ted Cruz, Ted Cruz was up by 7 points. He was clearly ahead. But look at the polling average now when you match up Ken Paxton versus James Talarico. It’s actually Talarico that’s ahead by 4 points.”

Enten said he dug through historical data and was surprised by what he found.

"And Johnny B, I was looking back at every single Texas Senate race that I could find, and at this point in the campaign, James Talarico is polling better than any Democrat in at least 24 years. You have to go all the way back to 2002 to find a Democrat even polling anywhere close to where Talarico is polling right now. Texas Democrats have dreamt about turning it blue. This time, the numbers actually support the idea that they may actually be able to do it," he insisted.

Harry Enten rejects Ken Paxton-Ted Cruz comparison

Berman noted that many observers have been comparing the current race to 2018, partly because of the Republican candidate factor.

“Be able to do it. I have to say this is a difference that I have not seen before, and I was not aware of, and a lot of people are making the comparison to 2018. One of the reasons is that Ken Paxton, if he’s a nominee—not a super popular nominee—and people like, ‘Oh, well Ted Cruz as an incumbent Senator, he wasn’t that popular either.’ So what’s the difference between Cruz and Ken Paxton?” he asked. 

“Yeah, the idea that Ted Cruz was not that popular—that’s a falsehood. That is simply put a false statement,” Enten replied.

He argued Cruz entered that race in stronger shape than people remember.

“If you go back? Again, just look at these differences right here, okay? Texas GOP candidate net favorability,” he continued. “Ted Cruz’s net favorability was actually plus seven points in my average. Look what Ken Paxton is. The complete inverse of that—he’s seven points underwater.”

For Enten, that’s where the comparison starts to break down.

“So look again. You just look at the numbers. In 2018, Democrats had this dream of turning Texas blue. The numbers didn’t support it in large part because Ted Cruz is actually decently popular. But Ken Paxton is anything but. In poll after poll after poll, he is underwater. No wonder Republican senators are running scared, especially after that Trump endorsement of Paxton yesterday,” Enten added. 

Donald Trump’s standing could be part of the equation

Berman then turned the conversation to a larger question.

“How’s the president doing in Texas?” he asked.

Enten argued that state races increasingly reflect the national environment.

“Okay, that’s the other part of this equation, right?" Enten acknowledged. "All politics at this point funnel down from up top and then drop down to the state level. And you can just see it right here. Okay. Back in May 2018, Trump’s net popularity in Texas—he was at plus four points. He was above water. Again, we’re looking at the inverse of that."

"Trump is considerably less popular in Texas, which of course matches what we’re seeing nationally, which is that Donald Trump is less popular now than he was at this point in term one. You put it all together. You look at the general election polls. You look at the popularity of the potential Republican candidates that will be running for Texas Senate," the analyst concluded.