Harry Enten gives Dems a ‘reality check’ as GOP stays competitive despite Trump’s sinking polls

WASHINGTON, DC: CNN data analyst Harry Enten said that Democrats may not be gaining as much ground as expected despite President Donald Trump’s falling approval ratings and voter frustration over rising costs.

During the episode of CNN 'News Central,' anchor John Berman pointed to a CNN poll showing that more than 70% of Americans blame Trump for rising costs, including 77% who specifically fault the president for the higher cost of living. But when Berman asked whether Democrats were cashing in on it politically, Enten threw cold water on the idea.  

“I think this poll serves as a big time reality check for Democrats, and that is it ain’t over yet, especially with the redistricting when we look ahead to the 2026 race for Congress. You would have thought that the Democrats’ lead would expand on the generic congressional ballot. It didn’t happen,” Enten said.

Democrats fail to gain despite Trump’s unpopularity

Enten pointed to aggregate polling showing Democrats’ edge on the generic congressional ballot has actually narrowed compared to last year. According to him, Democrats went from leading by six points in March 2025 to just three points now.

That shrinking advantage comes even as Trump faces backlash over issues ranging from inflation to US strikes on Iran.

“It is within the margin of error. So, despite all of the talk about Donald Trump’s unpopularity, the fact is, Republicans very much remain in the game when it comes to the congressional midterms,” Enten told Berman.

Berman later pressed him on why Democrats do not appear to be “benefitting” politically while Trump’s approval numbers slide.

Enten said Trump’s approval rating currently sits 36 points underwater on average, but Democrats are barely doing better in voters’ eyes.

“There’s no way there’s nowhere Republicans could possibly hold onto the House? But look at this, which party is trusted more in the economy? It’s a tie among registered voters. Just because Donald Trump is unpopular doesn’t make Democrats popular. And when you match Democrats against Republicans, all of a sudden it is a dead heat,” Enten said.

Redistricting battle gives Republicans edge before 2026 midterms

Enten also revisited what he called a potential “nightmare” scenario for Democrats after Republicans scored a major redistricting victory in Virginia.

Earlier, the CNN analyst argued the recent “drastic turn” in redistricting battles makes it “fairly safe to say that Republicans will, in fact, win” the broader redistricting war ahead of 2026.

“But what exactly does that mean? Does that mean it’s a nightmare for Democrats? Well, sort of, but not really,” Enten said.

Under the current congressional map lines, Democrats would need to win the national House popular vote by less than one point to retake the chamber. But once new district maps are factored in, Enten said Democrats may need to win by somewhere between three and four points instead.

“It is not anything like 10 points or anything like that. It just makes the road significantly harder for Democrats,” he explained.

Democrats face slimmer path to House majority

Enten did note there is still some good news for Democrats.

National House polling currently shows the party leading by roughly six points, which is higher than the estimated three-to-four-point cushion needed to overcome the new redistricting math.

Still, he warned that the advantage is shakier than it may appear because the historical polling margin of error can swing by roughly seven points in either direction.

“So what that essentially means is, yes, Democrats would be favored going into the elections today... [but] they would not be anywhere near as big of a favorite as they were just, let’s say, a few weeks ago,” Enten said.

This comes just days after the Virginia Supreme Court struck down a voter-backed redistricting referendum that Democrats believed could have helped them gain four additional US House seats.