Poll finds Trump voters turning on Sen John Cornyn to back AG Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race

DALLAS, TEXAS: A new poll has revealed deep fractures within the Texas Republican Party as longtime Senator John Cornyn faces an uphill battle against the state's Attorney General Ken Paxton in a potential 2026 primary showdown.

Fueled by the support of Trump-aligned conservatives, Paxton has opened up a commanding lead that highlights the GOP’s ongoing identity crisis, reports Politico.

Ken Paxton surges past John Cornyn in new primary poll

Commissioned by the conservative donor group American Opportunity Alliance, closely linked to influential financier Paul Singer, the poll showed Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn by a staggering 17-point margin, 52 percent to 35 percent.

The survey, conducted among 800 likely Republican primary voters between April 29 and May 1, signals trouble for Cornyn’s reelection prospects and the broader establishment wing of the party.

The poll broke voters into two main groups: “Trump Movement” supporters, who made up 58 percent of the sample, and “Traditional Republicans,” who accounted for 35 percent. Among the former, Paxton holds a massive 45-point advantage.

Cornyn leads among traditional GOP voters, but only by 27 points.

Paxton’s rise among MAGA loyalists reflects a broader trend in Texas politics, where insurgent conservatives are increasingly challenging veteran lawmakers.

Despite facing both a federal investigation and impeachment, Paxton has remained a favorite among Texas’s right-wing base. In contrast, Cornyn, who’s served in the Senate since 2002, is widely seen as a steady figure within the traditional Republican establishment.

Ken Paxton still leads John Cornyn by 16 points with Wesley Hunt in the mix

In a potential three-way primary that includes GOP Rep Wesley Hunt, who’s said to be considering a run, the numbers don’t shift much. Ken Paxton still holds a strong lead with 43%, while John Cornyn trails behind at 27%. Hunt, the newcomer in the mix, picks up 14% support.

Despite the tough numbers, the survey did offer a glimmer of hope for Cornyn.

The poll has alarmed national Republican strategists, who worry that an ugly primary could drain resources and ultimately hand Democrats an opening, especially if a scandal-plagued candidate like Paxton advances to the general election.

The involvement of the American Opportunity Alliance suggests that major GOP donors may be looking to play a decisive role in shaping the race early.

The group, which includes heavyweights like Singer and Charles Schwab, has historically backed more mainstream Republican candidates — a category Cornyn fits, but one now facing severe headwinds in the state’s primary landscape.