CNN's Harry Enten says Marco Rubio 2028 odds surge to 27% as MAGA base backs Iran strikes

ATLANTA, GEORGIA: Marco Rubio is rapidly emerging as a top contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, with CNN's data analyst Harry Enten saying his rise has been nothing short of explosive.

On Tuesday, March 17, Enten claimed that “Marco Rubio is hot, hot, hot, like a summer heat wave”.

Breaking down the numbers from a recent poll, Enten pointed to a dramatic shift in prediction markets.

“Over the last six months, he was just at 7%, up like a rocket, 27% chance now,” he said, citing Kalshi data. 

“That’s quadrupling his chances in four months’ time.”

Harry Enten links Marco Rubio's surge to Iran war support

Enten directly tied Rubio’s rise to overwhelming support for US military action in Iran among the Republican base.

“One of the reasons is because the MAGA base really likes the US military action in Iran.”

He then pointed to striking polling numbers “Nearly 9 in 10, 89% approve and just 9% disapprove. This is tremendously popular among the Republican base.”

That support, Enten suggested, is translating into political capital for Rubio.

“Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, overseeing the effort, it seems to me that a lot of people are taking that into account,” Enten said.

The segment also highlighted Rubio’s growing proximity to Donald Trump.

“Including President Donald Trump, who has been smiling an awful lot at Marco Rubio lately,” Enten noted, as pictures of the two played on screen.

The anchor echoed the sentiment, pointing to their body language “Look at these smiles, look at the way they’re looking at each other there.”

Harry Enten says Rubio outperforming Blinken

Enten then compared Rubio’s standing within his party to that of former Secretary of State Antony Blinken under Joe Biden.

“Marco Rubio at 81% among Republicans at this point,” he said. “Significantly higher than Tony Blinken was, he was only at 73%.”

He framed this as part of a broader trend. “This is reflective of a larger popularity gap, a happy issue that Marco Rubio has.”

Enten also pointed to history, arguing Rubio’s current role could position him well for a presidential run. 

“It’s a very good stepping stone to the presidency, at least historically speaking,” he said.

“Six secretaries of state went on to be president, that’s actually the same number as vice presidents.”

The discussion even turned briefly to historical figures like Thomas Jefferson, with Enten joking about his significance.

“Thomas Jefferson is a sacred name in this household,” he quipped. Still, he acknowledged how rare such a transition has been in modern times, noting James Buchanan as the last to do so.

Ultimately, Enten boiled Rubio’s rise down to one key factor: alignment with the GOP base during a major geopolitical moment.

“This war is very popular among the GOP base,” he said, adding with a jab “Tucker Carlson, be darned.”