CNN analyst Harry Enten says GOP’s chances of keeping the House have 'shot up like a rocket'

WASHINGTON, DC: CNN's Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten said on Wednesday, October 15, on the CNN News Central with anchor Kate Bolduan, that the Republicans' chances of keeping control of the House of Representatives in 2026 have increased.

What once appeared to be a likely Democratic win has become a near toss-up.

He noted that in April 2025, Democrats were heavily favored to retake the House with an 83% chance.

That number has since plunged, while the GOP’s odds have “shot up like a rocket.”

Republicans fly high as Democrats lose momentum

Harry Enten cited data from the Kalshi prediction market and said that the Democrats are losing momentum.

“You go back six months ago, Kate Bolduan, what were we looking at? Democrats with a very clear shot at taking control of the US House of Representatives," he explained.

Enten further added, "We saw them at an 83% chance. But those odds have gone plummeting down."

He explained, “Now we’re talking about just a 63% chance, while the GOP’s chances are up like a rocket, up like gold, up from 17% to now a 37% chance." 

Enten said what looked like a pretty likely Democratic win in the House next year has become much closer to a toss-up, although still slightly leaning Democratic.

Historical comparison shows Democrats ‘off the pace’

Harry Enten compared the current trends to the 2017–2018 election cycle, when Democrats gained momentum during Donald Trump’s first term.

He pointed out that the Democrats were not matching their previous pace of gains on the generic congressional ballot, a key predictor of national sentiment.

He explained that in April 2025, Democrats were up by about three points, the same as in April 2017.

However, Enten explained that, "The Democrats are no longer keeping pace that they were setting back in 2017-2018. You look back at 2017, you saw that the Democrats had leaped up to an 8-point advantage."

He continued, "I remember a lot of folks, including myself, saying that Republicans look pretty decent right now in terms that they have the House, they have the presidency, but things were likely going to flip, and I was looking for the same signs this year."

"The bottom line is it hasn't happened, Kate Bolduan. Democrats have stayed basically steady; they’ve fallen off the pace. Democrats were way out ahead back in 2017," he added. 

Redistricting and Voting Rights Act could favor GOP

Enten cautioned that even a modest Democratic lead in national polling might not be enough to flip the House due to redistricting changes and potential Supreme Court rulings on the Voting Rights Act.

He said, “If both sides max out... There are more Republican gains possible than Democratic gains."

"Yes, Democrats might try to counter a Texas and California, but you go along in the different states and basically the Democrats run out of room while the Republicans are able to gain and gain and gain," he further added. 

"If both sides max out, we’re probably looking at a GOP gain of plus seven House seats,” he said.

Enten was also of the view that we could be looking at "adding 10, 12, 15, 17, on top of these 7 seats."