Exploring how Democrats could replace Joe Biden with Michelle Obama on 2024 ticket as she emerges poll frontrunner
WASHINGTON, DC: President Joe Biden's lackluster debate performance caused chaos within the Democratic Party, leading to heightened calls for his replacement ahead of the looming Democratic Party Convention in August.
Though many names have come up as possible substitutes for the 81-year-old incumbent, former First Lady Michelle Obama emerged as the only potential candidate who could defeat Republican opponent Donald Trump as an alternative to Biden.
Other names that have been touted include Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
Though Obama has not broken her silence on the possibility of stepping into Biden's shoes for the 2024 Democratic nominee ticket, she could be the most capable one to be on the ballot with the party's support. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll suggested she was leading Trump by an 11 percent margin.
Democrats should act fast if they want to replace Joe Biden
The Democratic National Convention is less than two months away, and the party has very little time to act if they want to get Obama on the ballot. If the former first lady agrees to take Biden's spot, the party would need to spend some time to convince the president to exit the reelection bid.
As of now, the octogenarian remains adamant about not stepping down. Biden insisted on this in a recent all-staff campaign call, as per USA Today.
Addressing his campaign, the incumbent said, "The past few days have been tough. I'm sure you're getting a lot of calls, and I'm sure many of you have questions as well. Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can and as simply and straightforwardly as I can: I am running."
Obama's promising polling numbers indicate she would be able to bring the Democratic Party back on track if Biden concedes before the DNC, scheduled to be held from August 19 to August 24.
Concerns regarding fundraising for a possible Michelle Obama campaign
In case a new face replaces Biden, even if it's Obama, the issue of money could adversely impact the campaign. If the former first lady becomes the Democratic nominee, she would have only three months to secure enough funds for the campaign's final days.
The Biden campaign amassed $127 million in June, the best of the election year, and closed the month with $240 million cash on hand. However, it would be impossible for the campaign to directly transfer the money to the nominee due to the $2,000 limit per candidate per election.
"In order for the withdrawing candidate's committee to get the funds into the campaign account of a successor candidate's campaign, the withdrawing candidate would have to refund the money to the original donors, who could then contribute to the new candidate's campaign," said Trevor Potter, the president of the nonpartisan organization Campaign Legal Center, as per Daily Mail.
In case Biden leaves the race, he could unlimitedly transfer the funds to the national party, placing all donations under the Democratic Party, which can control the potential fund allocation to a new nominee.
Michelle Obama's extensive network offers a strategic edge
Obama has the upper hand over all other likely Democrats speculated to replace Biden. It is the vast connection of strategists and loyalists she gained while her husband, former President Barack Obama, was in office for two terms.
For instance, David Axelrod, a senior political strategist to her husband's 2012 campaign, is a vocal critic of Biden's reelection bid. Though the possibility of him returning to the fold remains unclear, he could play a critical role if the former first lady consults him for a White House run.
However, some aides of the 44th president, particularly Jennifer O'Malley Dillon and Ben LaBolt, might not shift camps since they joined the Biden administration.
Replacing Joe Biden with Michelle Obama remains highly unlikely
Despite Obama's lead against Biden and possible success rate compared to other speculated replacements, she could hardly be the party nominee. After the president swept the state primaries, securing 3896 delegates, most of them are now unlikely to shift their support.
"That's not even remotely a topic of conversation," said Aaron Sims, a Biden delegate from Nevada, in an interview with ABC News when pressed about shifting his support. Similarly, Sami Khaldi, a delegate for Biden from Michigan, noted, "I am still supporting President Biden until this moment."
Democratic delegates are bound to support a candidate "in all good conscience," reflecting the choice of their votes. Therefore, it could be highly unlikely Obama could earn the needed 1968 delegates to become the formal Democratic nominee in August.
