Fact Check: Did the US confirm destroying only about one-third of Iran's missile arsenal?

WASHINGTON, DC: As the US and Israel’s war on Iran nears one month, reports are circulating online claiming that the US has only confirmed destroying about a third of Iran’s missile arsenal. From the very start, American and Israeli forces targeted Iran’s missile sites and took out many launchers. But four weeks into the conflict, Iran has continued launching missiles daily at Israel and US allies in the region. This suggests that the US may not have destroyed as many missiles as reported. Let’s fact-check the claim.

Claim: US has destroyed about a third of Iran’s missile arsenal

A post by X user DiscloseTv shared that, according to Reuters, “U.S. can only confirm with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Iran's missile arsenal.” The claim sparked widespread debate online and, within a few hours, the post received over 232,000 views and 2,000 likes.

Reuters, citing five people familiar with US intelligence, reported that Washington can confirm only about a third of Iran’s missile arsenal has been destroyed.

The status of the other third is unclear, though bombings may have damaged, destroyed, or buried those missiles in underground tunnels and bunkers, four sources told Reuters. 

Another source said the same level of certainty applies to Iran’s drones, with roughly a third believed to have been destroyed.

Fact Check: Claim about US assessment contrasts with Trump’s remarks on the Iran war

While several reports have claimed that the US has destroyed about one-third of Iran’s missiles, there is no confirmed evidence to support this. Neither US officials nor CENTCOM have publicly commented on the figure, making the claim unverifiable.

Assessments suggest that although many of Iran’s missiles have been destroyed or are now inaccessible, Tehran still retains a significant missile stockpile. Some buried or damaged missiles could potentially be recovered once the fighting ends.

One source noted that it is difficult to determine how many missiles Iran had stored in underground bunkers before the war, and the US has not disclosed its pre-war estimates.

The viral report also contrasts with President Donald Trump’s remarks, in which he claimed Iran has “very few rockets left.” He also acknowledged the threat posed by remaining Iranian missiles and drones to future US operations, particularly to protect the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.

So far, US strikes have targeted more than 10,000 Iranian military sites, and Central Command says 92% of Iran’s large naval vessels have been sunk.

However, they have not released details on how much of Iran’s missile or drone capability has been destroyed. Meanwhile, Iran has maintained that it has no shortages of missiles and that its wartime missile production is continuing without disruption.