Frank Luntz says Robert F Kennedy Jr's backing could help Donald Trump win key battleground states
WASHINGTON, DC: Republican pollster Frank Luntz pointed out that Robert F Kennedy Jr’s endorsement of former president Donald Trump could play a critical role in the 2024 election, particularly in key battleground states.
Kennedy, who initially launched his presidential bid as a Democrat, switched to running as an independent in October 2023.
On Friday, August 25, he announced the suspension of his campaign and endorsed Trump, stating he would remove his name from ballots in swing states to avoid being a spoiler.
Frank Luntz opens up on RFK Jr's impact in swing states
During an appearance on NewsNation’s 'On Balance' with Leland Vittert, Frank Luntz discussed how Robert F Kennedy Jr's remaining supporters could potentially sway the election in Donald Trump’s favor.
“It’s probably worth about 1 percent for Trump, and that 1 percent could be everything if it’s in the swing states,” Luntz noted.
He explained that RFK Jr's polling numbers dropped after Vice President Kamala Harris became the top of the Democratic ticket, but his remaining supporters could still be pivotal.
"Joe Biden’s gone. Kamala Harris has replaced him, and [Kennedy’s] vote collapsed down to about 4 or 5 percent, and what’s left is a Trump vote,” Luntz added, according to The Hill.
Swing state showdown: Frank Luntz warns of voter shift with RFK Jr's support
Frank Luntz further elaborated on the potential shift in voter behavior, indicating that a significant portion of Robert F Kennedy Jr's remaining supporters might now lean towards Donald Trump.
“Some of them are simply not going to participate in November; roughly two to one, the ones who are remaining will vote for Trump over Harris, and that’s worth a single percent, and a single percent can make the difference in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin,” Luntz stated.
The pollster noted that Trump would have an advantage if he focused on issues like immigration and inflation, but Harris could win if the election centers on character traits.
“If it is about attributes, if he continues to attack Harris and the way that he is done, and he gets away from inflation, which is really affordability, stops talking about paycheck-to-paycheck voters, which is better than working class or middle class, the language does matter here, if he does that, he is in the driver’s seat," he said according to the publication.
RFK Jr's media portrayal would have been different had he endorsed Kamala Harris, says Frank Luntz
Frank Luntz also criticized the media's coverage of RFK Jr following his endorsement of Donald Trump, suggesting that the narrative would have been different had Robert F Kennedy Jr backed Kamala Harris instead.
“If he had endorsed Harris, I do think he would be regarded as a hero, but because he endorsed Trump, the people who are communicating that are not giving him the credit that he deserves,” Luntz remarked.
"I think we have to be careful in the last 73 days of this election campaign to understand the motivations of the people providing us information like what I’m doing right now, because I am dedicated to getting this election correct,” he said.
